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Global Markets Analysis – 07 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.06.2017 周三 美盘豆油出现右侧反弹的苗头

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周二晚间继续红盘表现,因此上形成了2根错列的阳K线,但由于上涨发力幅度较小,尚不能带给内盘 马盘更多的支持—–但前期的9连阴下挫出现了整理结束信号苗头,我们继续期待第12 13未来2天交易日的后续表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,当前国内油脂商品现货市场不温不火,不淡不旺的现货市场令市场死气沉沉。期货市场上也存在多空双方对后市看法存在分歧。 前期的反弹以及随后的回落整理—-这已在我们意料之中。短线的下挫回落整理之后—–我们更多的是依据技术走势观点来分析看待,逢低位多单接盘是我们上上周就做好的心理准备,我们继续关注横盘之后的市场表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,短线下挫整理之后,最近几日期价拒绝延续下挫——表现为右侧的横盘整理,虽然尚无明显的信号表明回落整理行情已经结束,但期价本身不再下跌,就隐隐提示我们,短线回落整理接近尾声(13个交易日,调整的较为充分)继续关注美盘豆油给予的指引。

小结:美盘豆油略微出现止跌企稳迹象,但反身上行动作尚不够明显(力度还不够), 内盘马盘油脂商品只好延续横盘震荡走势,但本波回落整理已经接近尾声阶段——这是我们不变的观点,继续等待市场更清晰的技术信号出现。具体操作上:昨日建议的激进型交易者逢低埋伏的多单继续持有,等待美盘豆油给出右侧更明确信号后—–激进型交易者可加多仓 ,稳健型交易者可追多。未来2天美盘豆油的具体表现成为我们关注的焦点所在。

[SUMMARY]
• While US soybean oil is starting show sign of a halt to its decline, possibility rebound is less visible.
• China and Malaysia edible oils continue to move sideways, as the downward correction draws to an end.
• We shall focus on the performance of US soybean oil in the next two days.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may retain long position and wait for clearer technical signals. They may also increase the number of long position.
• Passive traders may go long.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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