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Global Markets Analysis – 07 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.03.2016 周一 油脂商品回落整理结束后短线反身上行

美盘豆油5月合约,上周五晚间红盘上涨收盘。在短线瞬间下破60天均线后,又迅速的反身上行,我们前期预测的“不破不立”成立。在向下做了一个完美的“空头陷阱”之后,期价又反身走高。今天周一亚洲早盘又继续红盘表现,期价又站上60天均线上方,短线角度的反弹上行值得期待。短多观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,是本波短线角度回落整理率先结束的品种,特别是内盘棕榈油1605主力合约,前期在其他油脂商品整理回落整理走势时候,该品种的回落空间明显变窄,典型的属于强势回落整理,下方的回落空间被封杀。当其他油脂商品在下挫整理结束时候,该品种率先发力上涨,到今天周一早盘,期价已经突破2016年2月22日的高点,后市将继续走强,建议继续看高一线。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,在上周三时候下破60天均线,仅仅在均线下方维持了周三与周四2个交易日,上周五期价又回到60天均线,今天周一早盘,期价更是跳空高开高走红盘运行,期价已经上涨到60天均线上方,上周三与周四的“空头陷阱”做的是相当完美,瞬间令短线追空操作者完全被套。而我们在报告中屡次提到,短线不追空,反而建议空单缝盘中急挫时候逢低平仓离场,到今天行情稍微明朗后,可以明显看出我们的操作建议是非常明智的。后市短线继续反手之后的短多思维看待。

小结:美元指数冲高回落,全球大宗商品下行压力普遍减轻,以黄金与白银为代表的贵金属商品普遍上涨,国际原油价格也随之上扬,有色金属与橡胶化工类商品等等均出现不同程度期价上涨。我们较为关心的油脂类商品也不例外,在短线一个空头陷阱之后,期价又反身上行。我们短线观点在上周五已经由短空思路转变为短多观点,后市继续保持短多思维看待。个人观点认为具体操作上:短线空单平仓离场后的反手多单持有,原中长线多单继续持有,后市油脂类商品期价看高一线。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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