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Global Markets Analysis – 07 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.03.2017 周二 大陆现货市场价格拖累期货市场油脂商品表现

美盘豆油5月合约,上周初2根长阳K线飙涨之后,短线指明了反弹方向。但由于随后几天的阳K线右侧整理时间过久(多出2天),造成美豆油短线走势的犹豫徘徊迹象,这给当前反弹上行走势抹上一层淡淡阴影。整体来说:美豆油的反弹上行动能尚未完全衰竭,但能量损耗过大,对于这点 我们表示密切关注。

中国大陆市场当前棕榈油各港口现货库存大概为55—-60万吨左右,库存的增加压制现货市场价格与基差,而现货市场小幅的价格上涨又拖累期货市场的表现(低于期货市场盘面)。内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,今天周二盘面上出现阴K线下跌,特别是豆油1705合约,期价下挫幅度过大(棕榈油1705尚在能接受范围内),对今天豆油盘面的表现—–我们保持一定高度的警惕。

马来西亚方面,2月份棕榈产量恢复良好,随着后期增产预期的情绪化强烈,不排除后市存在反弹过后的高位阻挡局面发生。同时豆油 棕榈油价差变窄,也严重影响到棕榈油的反弹高度。在马盘棕榈油基准5月上,我们的操作思维模式为——-超跌之后的盘中急跌时刻多单低位接盘埋伏(已操作),随着期价反弹上行达到一定高度时候多单出局(正进行中 尚未到最高点),在反弹动能出现衰竭时刻在稍高位置平多翻空(未发生)。我们后市对马棕榈油保持该思维模式不变,当前短线仍以反弹上行观点看待。

小结:内盘油脂商品豆油1705合约,今天周二盘中表现不佳,盘中出现空头主力主动增仓打压迹象—-这跟美盘豆油阳K线后的迟疑徘徊心理密不可分,我们对内盘豆油今天的表现保持高度谨慎态度。考虑到美盘豆油,马盘棕榈油,内盘棕榈油下跌幅度并不太大,并且技术观察美豆油的上涨动能仍未完全衰竭,我们继续保持短多观点不变。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,其中内盘豆油1705多单更多保持一定警惕。关注美盘豆油的后续表现(美豆油不能一直在阳K线右侧横盘徘徊,免生变故)。

[SUMMARY]
• China soybean oil declined on Tuesday, as short interest exerts greater pressure on the market.
• We shall be highly cautiously about the performanc of China soybean oil today.
• Given the seemingly small drop of US, China and Malaysia edible oils, and the presence of bullish indicators of US soybean oil, we maintain our short-term long position outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions, with extra caution on China soybean oil May 2017 contracts.
• Close attention is to be paid to the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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