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Global Markets Analysis – 07 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.11.2016 周一 油脂类商品抵抗性回落整理行情延续中

纽约原油期价下跌,前期的回落整理走势进行中。美盘豆油12月短线的下挫整理行情也在延续中,虽然盘中有少许的抵抗盘出现,但仍不能扭转期价的短线下坠,我们继续保持前期反弹上行之后的冲高回落观点不变,继续等待真正的止跌企稳机会。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,也在追随美盘的短线回落走势, 从今天周一盘中观察,内盘油脂商品的多头主力仍在牢牢的把握着市场运行节奏, 期价呈现抵抗性回落整理,并且内盘短线走势略强于美盘豆油。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,上周五盘中低开低走小阴表现,今天周一早盘高开高走小阳表现,期价也在震荡中整理,整体来说马盘棕榈油前期反弹上行之后的回落整理下跌幅度最小,盘中多头主力始终不愿意放弃前期的胜利成果,我们继续保持中长线看多基础不变而短线角度的抵抗性整理观点不变。

小结:全球油脂类商品的短线角度层面的回落整理走势延续中,虽然各个品种的回落空间有所不同,但整体的下挫整理走势节奏却是一样的,我们继续保持中长线看多观点不变前提下的-短线周期层面的回落整理观点对待,能规避的风险我们尽量规避,待到真正整理结束,我们再在稍低位置多单找机会跟进,这是我们近段时间以来一直所要表达的一种操作理念观点。观点认为具体操作上:无仓散户朋友继续场外观望,不建议大手笔做空或者追空操作,耐心等待调整结束的新的进场机会。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils are undergoing a short-term downtrend correction.
• While the extent of correction differs for each product, it appears to move at the same rhythm.
• We shall maintain our medium and long-term outlook: avoid risks during this correction, and find a low price to enter long position when it subsides.

[ACTION]
• Uncommitted retail traders may remain on the sidelines and are not encouraged to take big short positions but patiently wait for the correction to end before entering the market again.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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