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Global Markets Analysis – 08 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.08.2017 周二 马盘棕榈油昨日盘中出现急跌

美国最新消息:美国豆农种植大豆使用除草剂农药出现问题,一种名叫“麦草畏”的农药对大豆作物生长出现损害,美国恐将有250万英亩大豆受灾。孟山都公司杜邦公司恐将因农药事件被大豆农户法律起诉。考虑到美大豆产量恐将减产—–昨日晚间美盘黄豆连中阳跳空上涨。当前市场围绕天气 农作物生长等等情况炒作仍在延续中,因此上期价较容易出现反复将成为情绪化常态。本周四(8月10日)美国农业部将公布8月份供需报告(北京时间周五凌晨)——-我个人本次报告美豆产量以及库存量都将有所下调(利多成分),这点要引起我们提前注意。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日周一阴K线下跌表现,今天周二早盘低开高走阳K线红盘表现(受美豆油12月合约,亚洲电子盘走高提振),盘中出现部分空头逢低减仓迹象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日周一盘中期价出现中阴K线急跌,下挫幅度比较明显,昨天报告中我们从提到过——-遇急跌下挫时候可适量空单平仓。今天期价运行恐将在昨日阴K线的右侧阳K线反弹,期价会出现反复。

小结:油脂类商品短线下挫整理走势延续中,但短线角度的期价反复现象恐将更为明显,仍不排除存在一定“抵抗性”的护盘动作,这基本在我们的预料当中。具体操作上:前期被套空单继续持有,上周新进的部分盈利空单可遇盘中急跌时候继续逢低兑现了结,在高低位空单平均价成本适当摊薄之后,相信部分散户朋友中一部分人已经由被套转为盈利,而逢低兑现离场空单仍是我们首要任务,考虑到本周四马来西亚美国均有重要报告出炉,在基本面不明确前,我们保持一份谨慎心态尤为重要,继续关注下方回落空间的大小。

[SUMMARY]
• Downtrend of global edible oils continues, as a downward correction is in progress.
• We shall pay close attention to the fundamental reports which are MPOB and US commodities report that will release on this Thursday.
• Before the fundamental reports release, trader can remain a short-term short outlook carefully.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are still holding short positions may close-out all positions when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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