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Global Markets Analysis – 08 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.12.2015 周二 油脂类商品期价回抽均线;短线多单暂逢高离场

美盘豆油1月,在上周五长阳加速上扬之后,昨日周一晚间,期价出现冲高回落,前几天日提醒过,当期价远离均线后,这种回落行情很容易发生,今天周二亚洲电子盘期价已经回落到5日均线位置,短线角度的回抽均线确认过程出现苗头,后市短线的回落调整行情概率加大。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,昨日周一盘中追随美盘豆油高开高走,今天周二盘中风云突变,上午盘中走势为高开低走,特别是豆油1605合约,昨日长阳留上影线,今天期价下滑过程中,形成了我们所担忧的乌云盖顶K线形态, 该吞没形态已经宣告短线的反弹上行走势存在变盘的可能。建议多线多单逢高减仓为宜。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,昨天周一盘中在前高2500-2520一线存在技术压力,期价大幅高开上冲之后,期价未突破该前高阻挡。今天周二早盘,追随美原油与美豆油 内盘油脂商品的走低,早盘低开出现低开,考虑到美盘与内盘油脂商品今天的走势,建议马盘棕榈油2月合约,也同样短线操作者多单暂时减仓先落袋为安。

小结:国际原油昨日创出新低,拖累全球油脂商品走势。经过前期油脂商品多日的反弹上行之后,油脂类商品短线的回落整理行情拉开序幕。我们中长线角度对油脂类商品继续保持“反弹(已进行)回抽确认(准备进行)-再反弹上行(未发生)”3浪节奏,但对于短线的回抽均线确认回落整理行情是我们短线操作者一定要回避的风险。个人观点认为可依据个人操作周期与手法的不同分为三类:1.长线趋势操作者多单继续持有。2.中线波段操作者多单持有,但适当空单锁仓,以规避不利风险。3.短线操作者短线多单建议全部逢高离场,并且其中激进操作者多单离场后可部分资金反手短空操作。后市短线我们暂时以期价回抽下方均线看待,未来在下方均线何种位置得到支撑-成为我们新的关注焦点。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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