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Global Markets Analysis – 08 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong

08.12.2016 油脂类商品回落整理“小荷才露尖尖角”

美盘原油连从前期反弹高点52.42美元/桶期价回落,短线出现回落整理走势。 美盘豆油1月合约,昨日周三晚间期价上涨乏力,继续以带上影线的阴十字星K线收盘,今天周四亚洲电子早盘,期价又继续走低,美豆油短线出现高位横盘震荡之后的回落整理小苗头。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油 1705主力合约,今天周四早盘出现跳空低开现象,期价逐步靠近横盘整理区间的下沿附近,若下沿位置不能支撑住期价的滑落,后市短线则存在继续向下回落整理的技术要求。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,今天周四早盘开盘,也是跳空低开,期价跌落到5日均线下方,短线走势上也出现冲高回落的苗头,不出意外的话,马盘棕榈创新高之后的回抽均线确认的走势也将展开, 毕竟马棕榈震荡盘升上行已经很久了,一定要谨防获利盘涌出而带来变盘信号的发生。

油脂类商品短线走势上出现变盘信号, 后市短线存在技术回落整理的要求, 在前期持续期价上涨创新高之后,该回调整理走势也是正常现象,我们暂且不去研判下挫整理的幅度空间有多大? 我们首先要完成的是前期多单,特别是短线交易者多单先规避风险。 在连续几日建议多单逢高派发兑现利润出局后,相信看到我们报告的散户朋友已经平仓了结完毕。后市短线我们以下挫的回抽均线整理观点看待。具体操作上:激进型短线交易者空单少量进场,不贪不燥等待回落行情的发生(毕竟回落整理短线行情是”逆向单“ 逆于多头排列上行的均线系统),因此仓量上不能太大更不能太贪。 稳健型交易者可暂时场外观望也可不做本波操作,建议依据个人的脾气性格与操作手法模式的不同区别对待。后市密切关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

• Edible oil commodity showing sign of reversal, which was normal technical retracement after breaking new high.
• Suggest long position holders especially short term trader to take profit and exit position.
• Aggressive trader may enter short position with minimal lots and wait for further retracement.
• Conservative trader may choose to avoid from entering market and monitor closely on US soybean oil market performance.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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