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Global Markets Analysis – 08 February 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.02.2015 周日 油脂商品本周回顾及下周展望

2月2日至2月6日本周5个交易日内,全球油脂类商品普遍上涨,前期的疲软态势得到一定程度的扭转,短线角度的反弹上行走势较为明显,是否能形成中长线角度的“反转”态势,当前由于交易时间太短尚不能完全下结论,几个关键技术点位尚未完全突破,扔需等待后续行情的发展才能明了。

国际原油市场,由于全球钻井平台的减少(微利;不盈利;甚至亏损),以及产油国利比亚暴力事件扶助了全球原油市场的上涨。其中美原油从去年6月以来开始的下跌行情随之发生变化,期价在快速跌破50美元整数技术关后,首次从低位反弹抬升,截止到上周五收盘于52.34 美元,全球做多人气得以提高,基本符合我们前期对美原油市场的技术预期。后市短线虽有上方均线压制,但震荡反弹走势已经出现雏形。

美盘豆油3月合约,在前期箱体下沿(32.00)被击穿后,期价曾出现快速惯性下跌,在连续8连阴后本周开始期价又迅速拔起,本周5个交易日呈4阳一阴走强迹象,盘中V型短线走势出现苗头。当前期价再次反抽到箱体下沿位置,该技术位置 短线上是上攻?还是阻挡?则成为下周我们所要关注的焦点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505合约,追随美盘豆油短线反弹走势,在相应美豆油30.00位置低位接盘多单踊跃,市场做多热情被调动,但由于上方空头排列的日图表上均线系统的层层压制,令短线期价反弹出现震荡反复,这种情况的发生在反弹(反转)初期很是自然,后市建议关注上方60天线处的阻挡情况。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准4月,本周只有三个交易日,但周三、周四、周五三天的表现却可圈可点,期价在快速拔高过程中凌厉而猛烈,盘中表现为减仓上行,空头仓皇逃跑迹象明显。日图表上短线的反弹上行走势 V型反转迹象在全球油脂商品中最为明显,我们前期在该商品上曾建议多单持有过程中为防止短线受外围市场的下挫所带来的不利风险而进行空单锁仓,在上两周我们又建议锁仓空单逢低逐步再平仓出局,后又建议在(2100附近)低位接盘多单(止损位2090)。目前期价已经再次上涨到前高位置,此操作计划即规避了短线下挫风险,又在低位接回了部分多单,可近乎于完美。马盘毛棕榈油基准4月下周市场表现上我们密切关注1月中旬前高(2350左右)位置是否能被有效向上突破,若突破则多单继续持有。

综述:本周全球油脂商品反弹上行走势明显,各个品种均有不同程度的上涨,后市我们继续以短线反弹观点看待。风向标上继续以美豆油为关键,美盘豆油3月下周若上攻原箱体下沿(32.00)成立,回到原箱体内运行可部分中线波段多单加仓,若再后市箱体的上沿(34.00)再被上破成功则长线多单继续加仓多单,建议后市中长线关注焦点是短线反弹走势可否演绎为反转行情。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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