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Global Markets Analysis – 08 February 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.02.2017 周三 美盘 马盘 油脂商品上攻欲望比较强烈 内盘受到提振

美盘豆油3月合约,期价在低位33.00上方一小点距离阴阳K线波动震荡,期价拒绝大幅度下挫,低位的“酝酿反弹拐点”短线行情进行中,我们不能排除美盘豆油突然瞬间拔高就反弹上行的这种可能性。截止目前,美盘豆油亚洲电子盘小阳K线红盘表现,后市期价一旦远距离突破34.75上方,则短线会有冲高反弹机会。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油,棕榈油1705主力合约,昨日周二盘中,内盘油脂商品期价低开低走小阴K线表现,盘中下挫补跌态势还比较明显。但今天周三盘面上—期价一反常态“低开高走”,中阳K线表现,内盘多头主力的做多热情被调动起来,这与马盘美盘的红盘上涨提振作用分不开的,内盘有可能提前结束下挫补跌走势—为防止期价就此反身上涨,激进型交易者可适当多单跟进。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,昨日周二盘中期价高开低走,今天周三盘中跳空高开高走,马盘棕榈油期价仍呈现出跳跃式“脉冲”走势(像脉搏一样 咚 咚 咚跳跃运行)—从今天周三盘面观察,马棕榈油的上攻欲望非常强烈。这与当前马来西亚基本面情况分不开—当前2月份仍属于马棕榈季节性减产周期内,棕榈油产量下降的良好预期以及棕榈油出口量的提高,这将导致马来西亚棕榈油总库存随之下降。同时马币令吉特的疲弱,令棕榈油对国外买家来说更具有吸引力。在本周末晚些时候,马来西亚棕榈油局将公布一系列最新数据,据当前此刻分析,其中可能利多情绪会更浓厚一些。

小结:全球油脂类商品前几天短线走势分化,令我们前几个交易日的统一操作难度增大。原本我们打算待内盘美盘油脂商品期价低位时候再建议逢低多单进场埋伏,但从今天周三盘面观察,油脂商品的短线做多人气有所聚集,为防止市场就此反弹把我们丢下—-今天建议:部分激进型散户交易者可少量多单紧急跟进。而稳健型交易者可待阴K线时候再多单进场也不算太迟。后市短线我们以谨慎的短多态度对待。

[SUMMARY]
• The divergence of global edible oil prices in the last few days makes creating a uniform strategy difficult.
• Based on the observation of the market on Wednesday, long interest is considerably strong which encourages us to abandon our original plan of taking long position at a low price.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may enter small number of long position to follow the trend.
• Passive traders may wait for clearer signals before entering the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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