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Global Markets Analysis – 08 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.07.2016周五 油脂类商品期价下挫;短线的疲软走势较为明显

美盘豆油12月合约,短线的下探回落整理走势较为明显,当前期价回落到30.20一线,但仍未出现明显的技术支撑,将近一个月以来的回落整理,从日K线图表上观察-技术整理已经相当充分,我们依旧相信下方的回落空间不会太大,耐心等待超跌之后的技术反弹行情。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,内盘油脂商品短线走势与美盘豆油走势略有不同-在上周曾经是凌厉的快速反弹上攻走势,并且是延续了一周的时间,但最终因未得到美盘的上涨支持,随后才追随美盘豆油的下跌而急转直下行情发生了逆转,在本周的4个交易日内,期价长阴单边急挫,一举把前期的反弹上行高地给全线丢失。大陆内盘油脂商品的急涨急跌,不排除令部分前期多单的利润瞬间化为乌有,内盘油脂商品的瞬间涨跌转换较为快速,表明大陆内盘投资人操盘较为急躁,心态不稳-更多的是资本型快速短线进出,内盘油脂商品多头阵地丢失后,短线行情演变成短空观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,在周三周四因公共假期停盘2天后,今天周五开盘后-果然不出我们昨日报告中所料,期价大幅跳空低开低走,早盘跌幅达4.70%(跌100令吉特以上),前期多单未平仓交易者可反手空单锁仓,暂规避期价下跌带来的风险。

小结:美盘豆油震荡下挫寻支撑走势延续中,大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品追随性下跌, 并且期价波动幅度较为猛烈,市场的恐慌情绪较为浓厚,我们暂时把规避风险作为第一首要任务。观点认为具体操作上:部分敏感交易者已经平仓出局的可场外观望,因假期耽误或者操作手法不敏感交易者可多空仓单形成对锁,我们暂时以短空思维对待当前盘面发生的新变化,带下方回落整理结束时,我们空单再逢低平仓离场(到时会逢低多单从新进场而摊薄手中多单的持仓成本),我们将在后续的行情变化中来弥补回这次惊天巨变而带来的账面损失。不急于这一城一地的得失。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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