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Global Markets Analysis – 08 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.06.2016周三 美盘豆油反抽到趋势线位置裹足不前;马棕榈冲高回落;内盘油脂坚持抵抗

美盘大豆屡创新高,而美盘豆油7月合约,在期价反抽到上升趋势线位置却连续几天不能站于上方,市场似一只无形的手在阻挡着美盘豆油的反弹上冲,这不由得让我们对美盘豆油保持一分警惕。当前的趋势线位置是一个关键技术位,只有期价冲过这个卡口,后市的短线反弹行情才能得以延续。美豆油当前这种模棱两可确实让人为难,若该位置成为技术阻挡-那会出现反抽确认过后的再次下挫。我们仍需继续关注美盘豆油在该位置的表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,短线的反弹上行走势良好,期价仍反弹性质的不断走高,盘中观察-内盘的反弹上行动能尚未出现衰竭迹象。但由于中国传统节日“端午节”将至,内盘期货与股票市场将停盘休市三天(加本周日为4天,下周一6月13日才开盘交易),今天是节前最后一个交易日,考虑到停盘期间市场的不确定性风险以及我们多年以来养成的规避风险的操作手法模式,今天周三盘中-建议部分交易者手中多单适当逢高平仓离场,暂时出局以规避风险。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日周二盘中出现异动情况-期价出现了冲高回落长阴下跌走势,期价跌破了我们昨天报告中提到的4月5日、4月21日、5月11日三者高点连线技术位2630一线的支撑,昨日盘中已经触及到我们提到的这个止损价位,技术上率先出现走坏苗头,今天周三开盘后,需要大家密切关注今日走势,若期价不能站回该位置之上-建议多单持有者在技术止损位附近平仓了结。

小结:美盘豆油关键技术位前徘徊不定,严重影响到内盘与马盘油脂商品的短线走势-特别是马盘棕榈油基准8月,昨日的长阴冲高回落出现技术走坏苗头,短线的反弹上行走势是否完结?昨日马盘棕榈的表现已经引起我们的警惕,若今天周三盘中马棕榈仍不能收复失地-建议前期多单逢高平仓了结出场。内盘长假期临近。可待节后和市场行情走势明朗后再进场操作不迟-当前规避不确定性风险为散户朋友的首要任务。

*补充-中国大陆内盘将于明天开始停盘休市,6月9日端午节、6月10日、6月11日三天公共假期,6月12日 星期天也停盘一天;6月13日周一开盘正常交易。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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