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Global Markets Analysis – 08 June 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.06.2017 周四 马盘毛棕榈油期价接近前低技术支撑位

美盘豆油7月合约在低位小幅波动震荡,即未出现明显的中阳上涨,也未出现较大幅度的中阴下挫,这令油脂类商品短线走势失去方向感。还好美盘黄豆连期价短线走势出现反弹走高迹象,这在一定程度上提振了美豆油的表现—–最起码美豆油本波的回落整理到后期阶段,期价出现了止跌企稳苗头,继续关注美豆油的后续表现。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,二者昨日周三盘中表现上略有分化,内盘豆油存在反弹走高欲望,而内盘棕榈油昨日中阴下跌,不能排除在美盘豆油短线走势不明朗情况下的部分主力在豆油棕榈油上进行了日内的短线套利操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日周三盘面也呈现中阴下挫态势,其中主要有2个原因,一是技术层面上:由于前期马棕榈油反弹上行高度强于其他品种,因此回落整理下挫的幅度可适度大些。二是国际原油价格的影响:昨日纽约原油长阴下跌,这从另一个侧面对棕榈油产生了不利影响。当前马棕榈油8月期价已经非常靠近前低位置(4月19日低点附近),我们有理由相信在前低位置存在一定的技术支撑力量。

小结:美盘黄豆连小幅上涨提振豆油止跌企稳,而国际原油下跌带动棕榈油延续下挫——豆油棕榈油近2日走势出现细微分化。今天周四盘面上,马盘内盘油脂商品十字星K线表现,多空主力由于对后市看法上存在分歧仍在奋力搏击。而我们继续保持回落整理进行到尾声阶段的观点不变。操作上:激进型接盘多单继续持有,稳健型交易者暂继续场外观望——共同关注美盘豆油在低位止跌企稳后的 “具体走势”指引。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean posts small rebound to halt the decline, while global crude oil drags palm oil.
• Soybean oil and palm oil show minor divergence in the last 2 days.
• On Thursday, Malaysia palm oil market is caught is a tug of war between long and short interests.
• We maintain our outlook: downward correction is coming to an end.

[ACTION]
• Aggressive traders may retain long position.
• Passive traders may stay on the sidelines.
• We shall observe the post-decline performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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