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Global Markets Analysis – 08 March 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.03.2015 周日 油脂商品本周回顾 后市展望

美元指数前期短线高位横盘整理一月有余,本周末时候突然走强,全球以美元计价大宗商品整体承压,其中包括贵金属:黄金与白银,有色金属;铜与锌,化工能源类商品橡胶与PTA等等。外汇市场在美元走强之时,欧元和英镑同样出现大幅度下跌。与此同时道琼斯指数也从多年来最高位出现冲高回落。本周末时分的全球大宗商品的整体走软对商品市场做多人气冲击巨大。

我们较为关心的油脂类商品与农产品,本周同样受到冲击。从3月2日至3月6日当周, 油脂类商品在周初时候短线走势还为反弹上行走势,到周末时候风云突变,短线的反弹走势在3月4日周三开始出现短线变盘迹象,3月5日周四至3月6日周五油脂商品更是反身下挫,因此宣告前期的反弹上行走势被终结,短线转为回落下探疲软看待。其中美盘豆油5月,在本周初时候仍运行于前期大的箱体内,随后周三、周四、周五三天的快速回落,期价再次击穿箱体下沿的支撑,行情转为短空看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,在3月4日周三时候盘面还延续着反弹走势,周四与周五2天的下挫令反弹走势宣告结束,我们在3月5日 周四第一时间建议散户朋友前期接盘多单减持,就是为规避短线不利走势所带来的风险。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月短线走势与内盘相同,周一和周二跳空高开一举上破前期高点的技术阻挡,红盘上涨收盘,反弹上行走势明显,在3月4日周三当天仍跳空高开创出近期高点2400令吉,虽当天冲高回落阴K线收盘,但不足以说明反弹结束。但在3月5日周四当天,期价延续回落跳空低开低走,顿时令短线走势出现不利信号,因此我们在开盘前就建议一旦涉及到我们多单止损位2330至2335一线(2340一月中旬前高下方X点)前期接盘多单 加仓多单 减持出局,规避风险。3月6日周五,毛棕榈油基准5月期价已经回落到一月中旬前高位的下方,短线转为看淡。

在全球豆油与棕榈油近2日走弱时,美盘原油市场短线走势变化不大,其中纽约原油仍维持在50.00一线震荡,并未出现大幅下探,期价纠缠于日图表上粘合在一起的均线处, 长期月K线图表上,原上升趋势线在50.00左右位置技术支撑力度明显。

综述:本周油脂类商品,短线冲高回落,周三的变盘令前期反弹上行走势被终结,我们前期观点也随之改变,短线转为短空。从中长线长期角度来说,我们的大观点却依然保持不变,震荡筑大底仍在延续中,(美豆油长期上升趋势线30.00位置仍存在大的技术支撑),虽然短线转为疲软看待,但依旧不影响我们的长期观点,这是我们这篇报告截止到目前主要要说明的。个人观点认为由于短线油脂商品的变盘,为规避无必要的风险,我们前期接盘多单减仓出局后,稳健操作者可先场外观望,等待回落完毕的再次进场接盘多单的机会。激进短线操作者可于盘中适当逢高短空操作,日内短线平仓,等待本轮回落结束后跟随长线稳健操作者再一起多单跟进。下周密切关注美国农业部周二时候对南美大豆主产国例如巴西和阿根廷大豆产量的最新预估报告值对盘面的影响。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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