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Global Markets Analysis – 08 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

08.03.2017 周三 内盘油脂商品期价短线的波动较为剧烈而多变

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周二晚间中阴K线下跌——在连续几天的长阳K线右侧整理之后,突然的瞬间期价走低,令短线盘面略显诡异(刚刚2根长阳K线飙涨之后 再瞬间滑落下来??)。 从技术层面上说,应该是飙涨之后稍微整理一下,然后期价再延续反弹走势才对。对于美盘昨日晚间的中阴K线,我们要保持警惕。基本面方面—–美国农业部将在明天美国东部时间周四中午公布3月份供需报告,该报告出炉前,当前美盘盘面上略显人心不稳。

截止昨天,中国大陆当前豆油现货市场库存为119万吨,较上周的116.5万吨增加2.1%。菜籽油与豆油的价差较小,菜籽油对豆油的替代作用略利空于豆油。内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油 1705主力合约,昨日盘中期价率先大幅下挫,特别是豆油1705合约盘中领跌,短线的技术走势悄然出现走坏迹象,今天周三盘面期价仍在下坠,还好棕榈油1705合约跌幅稍小,关注今日收盘前期价是否能部分收复失地。


小结:当前为油脂商品的整体消费淡季,盘面上观察,多空主力对后市的走势看法分歧较大,因此上短线走势波动性较为强烈。由于昨日内盘豆油1705合约上空头主力突然进场打压期价,造成当前油脂商品整体上短线波动较为剧烈而善变,瞬间令短线操作难度增大。 密切关注内盘豆油期价是否能收回失地(若再继续下跌低于2.24日的低点以下收盘,则存在变盘可能)。具体操作上:棕榈油前期多单暂时谨慎心态持有,而内盘豆油则保持更多一分的警惕心态,万一技术走坏,则率先在豆油做好止损心理准备。同时关注美国农业部的报告情况以及关注美豆油5月合约期价是否能收回失地,多观察一天,等待美豆油给出具体短线走势指引。

• Going into a season of expected low demand, conflicting views by bulls and bears create high volality in the short-term performance of edible oils.
• Following yesterday’s pressure exerted by strong short interest on the markets, volatility of edible oils makes it difficult to design a short-term strategy.
• We shall pay close attention to the ability of China edible oils to recover losses.

• Traders holding long positions in palm oil should be cautious.
• Traders holding long positions in soybean oil should be highly cautious and be prepared to cut losses when bearish technical indicators emerge.
• Traders should pay close attention to the report due to be released by the US Department of Agriculture, as well as the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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