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Global Markets Analysis – 08 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.05.2015 周五 油脂商品回落整理;短线多单需谨慎

美元指数前期回落整理,短线下挫之后稍有企稳,但中线的下挫仍未结束。短线上以下挫回落-反弹-下挫节凑看待。

美元的短暂企稳,纽约原油经过前期的震荡反弹上行后,我们昨日就提到过存在短线的回落均线技术要求,美盘原油短暂下挫整理进行中。

美盘豆油7月合约昨日晚间中阴下跌,下跌幅度略大于预期,长阳上涨之后,当前这种短线走势尚不能完全确定已经完全技术走坏,建议暂且多观察几日。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,在前期3浪反弹结构明确后,受昨日美盘豆油走软影响,今天周五早盘低开低走,期价回落。前期提到过该品种3浪过后,是运行4浪,还是3浪结束后从新运行新的走势尚不能在盘面上看清楚。当前短线出现回落均线走势苗头。回落到下方那根均线才得到支撑我们尚不能明确,需要后市观察。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,当前短线走势属于典型的跟随状态,美盘豆油、原油、内盘油脂对其的影响较重,单从马盘7月合约观察,期价反弹到上方60天线后,期价短线回落,技术反弹走势尚未完全被破坏,后市密切关注美盘与内盘对其影响程度。

小结:油脂类商品短线涨,然后就快速回落,表明了当前大周期长线角度的震荡筑大底仍在进行中,短线的走势仍受大周期的下跌之后的震荡影响之下。当前油脂商品短线的涨跌仍非常情绪化。但不管短线走势如何善变,个人始终保持中长线筑大底观点不变,因此中长线操作者暂可不必太担忧。个人建议中长线多单操作者继续持仓不动。短线激进操作者由于操作周期的不同,因此账户盘面数字受短线走势影响较大,因此我们这几日一直提醒是谨慎态度持有短多仓单,一定要把短线单子与中长线单子之间的界限划分清楚,二者之间不能在思维或操作上来影响到我们的心态。短多仓单暂谨慎持有一下,留一点时间让我们观察一下美盘豆油到底是要吞没前2日的长阳K线还是仅仅短暂正常的回落。待盘面真的出现走坏信号短线再第一平仓。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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