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Global Markets Analysis – 08 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.05.2017 周一 美豆油上攻60天线初步成立 内盘 马盘油脂商品涨幅增大

美盘豆油7月合约,上周五晚间中阳发力上涨,期价见新高33.47,终盘以带上影线的阳K线收盘于33.09。今天周一亚洲电子早盘,期价继续站于60天均线上方(32.80—32.90之上),美盘豆油的上攻欲望还是非常强烈,我们继续以中线回落调整之后的短线反弹观点对待,美豆油后市短线还将对60天均线关键压力位置进行反复测试。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周一盘面期价高开高走红盘上涨表现,正如我们所料—当美盘豆油上穿60天均线后,内盘油脂商品期价反弹的幅度开始加速,我们继续看高一线。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,上周五光头光脚中阳K线上涨,期价依托下方5日10日 20日均线反弹上扬,正在试图上攻上方的40天60天均线高度,只要美盘豆油保持上攻态势,我们继续短多观点对待马盘棕榈(马棕榈“对勾式”低位反弹走势进行中,即便今天周一盘中阳K线右上角小阴K线整理,暂也不惧)。

小结:美盘豆油上攻60天均线位置的技术阻挡,当该位置被向上“真正”突破后,随着后市期价的不断抬高底部—–则会出现短期均线上穿长期均线“金叉”的可能(原中线角度的下挫回落整理走势就会发生改变)—–在美豆油正在上攻时刻,若不出现空头主力的顽强抵抗,则我们继续内盘马盘期价看高一线。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有,保持短线反弹观点不变,同时密切关注美豆油的短线上攻高度?(越远离60天均线越可靠,力度越强,下方均线形成金叉的轨迹会越明显)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil breaks above the 60-day moving average, bring up the low points.
• Unless there is enough short interest to resist the uptrend of US soybean oil, we remain bullish on China and Malaysia edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position, maintain the rebound outlook.
• We shall observe the short-term strength of the uptrend of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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