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Global Markets Analysis – 08 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


08.11.2017周三美盘豆油期价反复长线多头主力掌控市场节奏

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五短线长阴K线下跌,期价瞬间下破原上升通道的下边轨(但未能跌破下方60天均线的支撑)。随后2天—–本周一本周二的连续2根阳K线又瞬间夺回上周五的阴K线失地,表明长线周期角度的多头主力仍未放弃上攻原通道的强烈欲望,考虑到美豆油12月合约最近期价能始终站于关键技术位的上方(原趋势线上方),表明在多空拉锯战中,多头主力还是存在一定的主动性,鉴于美盘豆油的强势——不排除后市短线调整走势被长线周期的上涨情绪给“强势扭转”过来,我们在思维上需要谨慎一些,尽量追随市场最新的盘面特征做出一些必要的操作调整。请散户朋友注意今天的市场分析报告,尽量严格执行在内盘马盘今天的报告操作建议。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,内盘豆油前期反弹上行走势不明显,上涨幅度不高,因此上在前几日的回落整理时候,期价的下挫幅度也不是很大,几乎呈现出一种“横盘波动整理态势”。内盘棕榈油前期反弹上行高度,高于内盘豆油,因此上在前几日的回落整理时候(回落整理进行7天)期价存在一定的下挫幅度。考虑到美盘豆油最新盘面变化,我们建议内盘豆油棕榈油空单今日逢低开始减持。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,最近的4个交易日阴K线下跌表现,前期逢高阻击的高位空单应该有一定的盈利(2850一线空单,昨日收盘2785令吉特,盘中最低2772),考虑到国际原油期价上涨,再考虑到美盘豆油出现强势特征苗头—–我们今天也建议马盘毛棕榈油基准1月上所以空单也开始进行减持操作——只要今天开盘期价能在2800整数关口之下进行平仓操作,相信大部分散户朋友不至于空单会出现亏损—-我们今天要做的就是先兑现一部分利润,先入袋为安,防范一下风险。

小结:美盘豆油昨日晚间出现“强势”特征,在前期多空拉锯战中,长线多头主力力量还是胜出一头,考虑到美盘豆油昨日晚间阳K线夺回失地,不排除强势扭转短线的回落整理走势 ,为谨防突破前期毛刺新高——我们今天操作建议:空单平仓离场操作,望散户朋友严格执行该紧急操作建议,我们始终根据市场最新盘面特征,把防范风险摆在第一位,至于盈利多少那属于第二位的。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil climbed for second consecutive day on Tuesday, indicating the upward momentum is strengthened.
• CTraders may pay close attention to the recent resistance on US soybean oil, we do not rule out the market might have a downward correction.
• Currently, our main focus is to secure investors’ capital and the second is profit taking on the trading.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders are strongly recommended to liquidate short positions for securing capital.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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