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Global Markets Analysis – 09 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.04.2015 周四 油脂类商品弱势走势再现

美国农业部(USDA)今日晚间又将有月度供需报告公布,较为引起投资者关注的内容市场分析人士已经提前做了预估,调低巴西大豆产量,调高阿根廷大豆产量,调低美国大豆库存等等。在具体数字没出炉前,市场出现了一定平仓盘。

美盘大豆5月合约,在前几日触及上方60天线后,短线出现下挫,表明在南美大豆集中上市的时刻,期待美豆油强力反弹走势,压力仍较大,美豆油仍存在下挫震荡走势。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,今天周四早盘低开低走,盘中弱势再现,表明当前油脂类商品仍在利空氛围中震荡。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,受马来西亚3月至4月棕榈油产量提高预期影响,以及马币令吉特走强影响,马盘棕榈油近3日盘面走势较弱,今天周四早盘的跳空低开,期价已经提前来到箱体下沿位置,(本周一的上沿突破成为技术假象概率大增),若横盘震荡的下沿被击破,则短线存在技术走坏迹象。

小结:全球油脂商品短线走势仍属弱势,每次的短暂上扬均被空头主力打压下来,表明当前的基本面仍不支持期价的走高。密切关注前低位置市场的表现。个人观点认为若前低被技术下破,则前期短线的接盘多单只能止损认赔出局。当前的油脂商品仍处于大周期筑底过程中的小幅下挫过程中,这个短线的下蹲行情是我们短线操作者首先要规避的风险。(建议长线交易者可适当忍受一段时间)

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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