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Global Markets Analysis – 09 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.08.2016 周二 油脂商品多单继续持有

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周一晚间红盘上涨,今天上午亚洲电子盘又继续红盘表现,期价正逐步靠近我们预期中的上涨第一目标位在31.90一线,该位置的重要性我们这里再重申一遍-该技术点位是原来回落整理的下降压力线的阻挡位置(昨日报告中有提到高点连线日期),若后市期价在该位置受到压力线阻挡而转为下跌-则表明美盘豆油第二浪的回落整理仍未结束,期价还有下探寻底的要求;若该位置被向上突破,则表明第二浪回落整理结束,美盘豆油12月合约将展开第三大浪的上攻(一浪上涨、二浪回落、三浪继续上涨的三浪浪型结构;其中一浪是从2015年8月24日开始至2016年4月21日结束、二浪是从2016年4月21日开始至现在阶段?)当市场尚未明确给出我们第二浪是否真正明确的结束信号前,我们就要关注二浪下降趋势线是否能被向上突破来评判,因此上 31.90一线的市场行情如何表现?-对我们来说就显得尤为重要。从更短的短线周期层面来说-当前短线期价从7月29日开始的反弹上行还在延续中,这7月29日的低点是否就是二浪回落整理结束的日子-有待我们随后的技术观察,我们短线暂且只把本波短线上行以短线反弹观点对待,市场中线角度的大行情在开始阶段往往都是从不起眼的更小周期的小行情开始的,我们先关注“小”,随后再关注是否演绎成“大”行情。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,继昨日收复上周五失地之后,今天周二盘中又继续高开高走,多头主力增仓发力拉升,盘中加速反弹上行迹象明显, 短线角度的反弹上行行情延续中,多单继续乐观持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,在昨日形成两阳夹一阴K线形态之后(冲天炮形态),今天周二盘中又继续期价上涨,短线的反弹走势比较清晰,随着期价不断走高,多单继续持有。密切关注明日马来西亚棕榈油局发布公告数据公布的具体情况对马盘棕榈油的影响。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线反弹上行走势延续中,国际原油价格近几日的小幅走高也对油脂类商品起到一定的提振作用,我们继续保持短多思路对待。观点认为操作上:多单继续持有,密切关注随后美盘豆油在下降压力线位置的具体表现以及大马基本面情况对马棕榈油的影响程度,若万一出现不利情况可适当部分多单少量减仓(马盘)。对美盘豆油来说,个人主观倾向更多的是要向上突破压力线的阻挡。具体情况我们以市场盘面走势为主要参考依据。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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