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Global Markets Analysis – 09 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.08.2017 周三 内盘 马盘油脂商品多头主力出现一种蠢蠢欲动的躁动情绪

美盘基本面情况错综复杂,围绕“天气炒作”的一系列任何问题都较容易引起期价的瞬间波动(甚至一场大雨)。对美盘豆油12月合约来说,当期价下挫到下方40天均线位置附近,期价开始出现反复,昨日周二晚间的中阳K线给予了内盘马盘油脂商品更多的心理提振作用,但就这昨晚的一根阳K线尚不足表明短线下挫整理已经结束,但在明天报告出炉前,我们还是保持一份警惕为妙。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日期价低开高走,盘面红盘阳K线表现。特别是豆油1801合约,当期价触及到下方40–60天均线位置后,在低位空单平仓盘与多头接多护仓盘2股力量推动下期价有所走高,表明下方的均线系统还存在一定的支撑力度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,本周一中阴K线急跌,周二中阳K线上涨,今天周三盘面十字星小阴K线表现——我们上周说过,遇盘中急跌时候可空单适量平仓离场,而本周一的盘面急跌特征就属于这种情况。对于马盘棕榈油来说,也不能确定回落整理已经结束,仅仅盘面上阴阳K线的下跌反弹变动频率比较快(会增加短线操作难度)。

小结:美盘豆油回落整理下挫行情延续中,内盘马盘油脂商品却率先出现异常波动—–盘中的护盘动作比较明显,但是否就确定下挫的回落整理结束,这点也不能完全确认。过去几天,我们一直强调遇盘中急跌时候,可适量空单平仓离场,就是为了防止这种期价反复而带来的账面损失。鉴于当前油脂商品屡次呈现快速变盘的异常波动,我们还是保持一份警惕心态为上。具体操作上:已经部分平仓空单的散户朋友暂时场外观望,未平仓的朋友可谨慎持有,待明天周四美国马来西亚最新报告出炉后,观察盘面的最新变化,然后我们再具体操作上做出新的调整。

[SUMMARY]
• Downward correction of US edible oils is still continue.
• However, downward correction of Malaysian palm oil and China edible oils have supported obviously and moved upward.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who have closed-out all short positions may observe the market and wait for another signals.
• Traders who are still holding short positions may pay close attention to the fundamental reports ( MPOB and US report) that will release on this Thursday.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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