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Global Markets Analysis – 09 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.01.2015 周五 反弹上行行情延续;美盘豆油面临上箱体

本周,一眨眼功美盘豆油3月合约已经从箱体下沿位置(32.00)来到箱体上沿位置(34.00),再次面临上箱体的技术阻挡。前期美豆油在32.00-34.00箱体内横盘整理已经整整4个月了,这个横盘区间震荡是早晚要被打破的,市场行情不会总是右侧横盘,在2014年10月29日市场出现一个向上的假突破,历史不能总是重演,我个人感觉向上突破箱体上沿的概率越来越大。

美原油近2日短线红盘十字星,盘中虽然瞬间见低点,但下方空间被逐步压缩,当前期价仍在49.20一线,短线虽有止跌,但不见长阳不转势,让我们期待技术性突发长阳的拔起。

马盘毛棕榈一如既往惯性反弹上行,前高(11月3日)高点昨天被向上突破,基本符合我前期报告的预期,后市走势发展尚待美豆油和美原油明确的指引,由于前期接盘多单获利丰厚,期价在继续上冲当中。个人观点觉得短线操作者多单可适量逢高减仓;落袋为安,不排除后市短线获利盘涌出所带来的短线期价反复。

大陆内盘油脂商品1505合约,在美豆油又到关键时刻,内盘走势表现出谨慎,多空主力均在悄悄观望后市发展,今天周五成交依然清淡,等待美盘豆油指引。

小结:今天周五,美盘豆油期价运行又到关键技术位,是否上破成功对全球油脂商品影响巨大,我个人的短线观点依旧保持乐观,(在基本面最最恶劣后期思维要乐观,在基本面最利好时候反而要更谨慎,也就是与市场反其道而行的思考模式)短线反弹上行观点不变。至于长线角度是否正酝酿大的反转,对于这一长线观点我们仍需要时间上的验证,目前还不能完全下结论(目前只能说存在这种可能)。个人建议前期接盘多单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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