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Global Markets Analysis – 09 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.01.2017 周一 以静制动;继续关注美盘豆油本周表现

国际原油反弹上行后,期价持续维持在较高位置,中长短线均有继续冲高的欲望。美盘豆油3月合约,短线走势怪异-期价始终在我们前期报告中所做图表的第一个红色圆圈内波动震荡(原上升趋势线位置),从技术理论上来讲-当期价回落到下方技术支撑处,是短线多单埋伏位置,因此我们继续保持对美盘豆油酝酿反弹拐点观点不变。

大陆内盘金融市场,从上周开始,包括股票市场上证指数;有色金属铜与锌;贵金属黄金;化工产品橡胶等等大宗商品均在前期回落基础上产生了反弹上行迹象。唯独内盘油脂类大宗商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约-上周的表现不尽如意,呈现出期价疲软下挫现象,其中存在空头主力主动打压与部分多头散户多单出套迹象, 令当前盘面出现不利情况,我们思维上要更多的保持谨慎态度。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,上周表现为先扬后抑-周初表现较为良好,但在上周四尾盘出现了期价突然跳水迹象而跌幅较大(内盘油脂商品短线走势拖累了马盘棕榈),在周五盘中期价继续下挫,尾盘稍微略有收回,但终盘仍以带下影线的阴K线收盘,连续2天的阴K线表现,多头人气受挫。从马盘棕榈油基准3月日K线图表整体观察-当前马棕榈期价仍处于一个高位区间横盘状态(3030-3160区间内),上有压力而下有支撑,只要期价在该区间内不下破区间-我们继续保持强势的短多观点对待。

小结:美元指数反弹上行之后,小幅下挫整理-全球股票市场与大宗商品下行压力减轻,部分大宗商品期价有所反弹。内盘油脂商品由于春节备货已经基本完成(还有20天左右就是春节),原来一直支撑现货市场的利多因素有所减弱,造成内盘期货市场期价短线疲软。我们继续等待美盘豆油的后续表现(美盘豆油的后市短线 技术走势是我们的信心所在),继续等待美盘豆油的后市表现。观点认为操作上:在未出现更大的不利信号走势之前,我们前期多单继续持有,暂不盲目随机改变原操作。

[SUMMARY]
• Dollar index undergoes a minor downward correction after upward reversal.
• Most commodities are seeing a reversal, as downward pressure eases.
• As stocking-up of edible oils in China, which had been supporting the strength of futures markets in the recent weeks, ahead of the Chinese New Year comes to an end, China futures markets are showing short-term fatigue.
• We continue to observe the performance of US soybean oil with patience and caution.

[ACTION]
• Until major bearish signals appear, traders may continue to hold long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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