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Global Markets Analysis – 09 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

09.01.2017 周一 以静制动;继续关注美盘豆油本周表现


大陆内盘金融市场,从上周开始,包括股票市场上证指数;有色金属铜与锌;贵金属黄金;化工产品橡胶等等大宗商品均在前期回落基础上产生了反弹上行迹象。唯独内盘油脂类大宗商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约-上周的表现不尽如意,呈现出期价疲软下挫现象,其中存在空头主力主动打压与部分多头散户多单出套迹象, 令当前盘面出现不利情况,我们思维上要更多的保持谨慎态度。


小结:美元指数反弹上行之后,小幅下挫整理-全球股票市场与大宗商品下行压力减轻,部分大宗商品期价有所反弹。内盘油脂商品由于春节备货已经基本完成(还有20天左右就是春节),原来一直支撑现货市场的利多因素有所减弱,造成内盘期货市场期价短线疲软。我们继续等待美盘豆油的后续表现(美盘豆油的后市短线 技术走势是我们的信心所在),继续等待美盘豆油的后市表现。观点认为操作上:在未出现更大的不利信号走势之前,我们前期多单继续持有,暂不盲目随机改变原操作。

• Dollar index undergoes a minor downward correction after upward reversal.
• Most commodities are seeing a reversal, as downward pressure eases.
• As stocking-up of edible oils in China, which had been supporting the strength of futures markets in the recent weeks, ahead of the Chinese New Year comes to an end, China futures markets are showing short-term fatigue.
• We continue to observe the performance of US soybean oil with patience and caution.

• Until major bearish signals appear, traders may continue to hold long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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