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Global Markets Analysis – 09 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.03.2017 周四 马盘棕榈油保持反弹上行走势 但上方压力重重

美盘豆油5月合约期价小幅下挫,盘面上2根长阳之后的下坠走势略显明显。 在美国农业部今天公布3月份供需报告之前,市场表现多空主力均较为谨慎—–今晚报告内容的利多?利空? 恐将成为当前美盘油脂商品短线走势的导火索,我们表示密切关注。

大陆内盘期货市场上,当前利空情绪蔓延—–从贵金属黄金 白银 到有色金属 铜锌 再到化工类商品 橡胶 PTA以及 黑色金属 螺纹钢 焦炭 建材商品玻璃等等, 期价均为下跌走势,这种利空情绪也传导到农产品市场上。。。 内盘油脂商品豆油 棕榈油1705主力当前短线走势压力重重,特别是豆油1705合约, 由于菜籽油与豆油价差变小,从而菜籽油的替代豆油的利空效应明显,而豆油替代棕榈油的利空效应又拖累了棕榈油的反弹走势。 内盘豆油的率先技术走坏若再不能收复失地,有豆油多单持仓的散户朋友恐将将不得不多单止损出局。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,整体来说马盘棕榈油的短线反弹上行走势未遭到严重破坏, 期价仍处于红盘上涨态势当中—-这也是我们为难的地方(马盘棕榈反弹进行中 内盘豆油却率先领跌), 一多一空两种情绪在我们心头萦绕, 心理上的取舍与利多利空报告研判难度增大。相对来说,我们对马盘棕榈油继续保持短多思路对待,但内心深处也要保持一份警惕——严防由于内盘豆油的下跌而拖累马盘棕榈油, 在关键时刻一定做好多单逢高出局的第一手准备(内盘豆油继续下跌 或者马盘棕榈反弹动能出现衰竭时候)。

小结: 美盘油脂商品在重要报告出炉前市场走势谨慎,由于美国农业部报告 利多 利空情况不明朗,造成美盘豆油短线走势谨慎而模糊。 而内盘油脂商品豆油的率先疲软又严重影响到我们对后市走势的看法。 虽然马盘油脂商品短线反弹上行走势延续中,但是——-是内盘豆油拖累马盘棕榈走低? 还是马盘棕榈提振内盘豆油恢复上涨? 我们对此局面要率先在心理上保持一份谨慎。 具体操作上: 内盘 马盘棕榈油短线多单继续持有,内盘豆油则率先做好第一时间多单止损准备, 一旦后市美盘再继续下挫—-则考虑在棕榈油商品上也多单逢高出局的思想准备。 密切关注今日完美美盘豆油的具体表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil was cautiously traded ahead of the USDA report due to be released on Thursday, creating uncertainty in its short-term performance.
• The decline in China edible oils has profoundly affected our outlook on the market.
• The questions remain: Is China soybean oil dragging Malaysia palm oil down with it? Or will Malaysia palm oil help boost China soybean oil?

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain short-term long positions on China and Malaysia palm oil but be prepared to stop losses on China soybean oil immediately if US edible oil continues to decline.
• Traders may repair to close-out long positions when prices are high.
• The performance of US soybean oil should be observed closely.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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