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Global Markets Analysis – 09 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.05.2016周一 美盘豆油考验下方上升趋势线的支撑有效

上周五晚间,美盘豆油7月合约,低开后瞬间见低点32.01后,又长阳飙涨收盘,而31.90—32.00恰恰是我们报告中所预测的上升趋势线的技术支撑位置,从美盘豆油的短线走势观察,期价仍运行在我们前面提到的上升通道内,周五盘中的长阳出现—-直接表明上升趋势线的技术支撑有效,后市短线将存在反身上行机会。后市短线我们将以短多观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品 – 豆油和棕榈油 1609主力合约,受美盘上周五的长阳上涨影响,今天大陆内盘油脂商品早盘高开高走,上周四和周五报告中我们提到过,在美盘越靠近下方趋势线时候,越要逢低多单进场埋伏,内盘周五的盘中急挫下跌为空头陷阱嫌疑很大,当日逢低所进多单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,周五盘中曾一度阴K线表现,我们也曾建议依托美盘豆油靠近下方上升趋势线时候,入场多单进场试盘,后马盘棕榈油周五收盘以阳K线收盘。今天周一早盘,受美盘和内盘油脂商品上涨影响,棕榈油7月早盘跳空高开,虽然内盘期价波动不大,但 日K线图表上已经形成了“岛形反转”技术形态(4月27日之后的向下跳跃与5月9日今天的向上跳跃,已经完全把下方这几日的交易完全孤立开,形成孤岛状。下方持有空单交易者将会被动而多单交易者会欣慰)而我们建议逢低买入的多单可继续持有。

小结:美盘豆油考验下方的上升趋势线的支撑效力结束,上周五的一根长阳依然表明了这一观点,后市短线上我们以短多观点对待。美盘豆油期价将在我们所画的通道内运行,下一目标为通道的上轨线。个人建议在操作上:上周末逢低入场埋伏的多单可继续持有,未进场的交易者可继续短多逢低进场。后市我们看高一线。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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