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Global Markets Analysis – 09 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.05.2017 周二 棕榈油期价反弹上行高度强于豆油商品

油脂类商品市场利多消息传来:美国政府职责阿根廷和印度尼西亚像美国倾销价值15亿美元的生物柴油,美国政府将在晚些时候对此进行调查,并对此将对阿根廷印尼生物燃料征收反补贴关税与反倾销关税。这对豆油菜籽油形成利好支持,特别是美国方面豆油需求将增加。另外美国当前大豆播种率为14%,上周播种率为10%左右,去年同期为21%,5年均值为17%。 美盘豆油7月合约,期价依旧在60天均线上方徘徊震荡——在这个关键技术位置,美豆油期价不能过多犹豫徘徊,只有快速期价上冲,才能带动下方短期均线上穿60天均线而形成“金叉”,否则的话,犹豫徘徊过久,势必遭到空头主力的阻击—–这也是我们对美豆油后市短线最担忧的地方。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,棕榈油涨幅居前,强于豆油短线走势,在美豆油仍存在反弹动能前,我们继续短多观点对待。

马来西亚方面,由于穆斯林斋月将于本月晚些时候开始,这对棕榈油需求形成直接利好(需求增加提前囤货)。马盘棕榈油基准7月,今天周二盘中 阴十字星K线表现,但期价整体底部高度有所抬高,短线角度的反弹上扬格局未发生改变,我们继续看高一线。

小结:油脂类商品短线反弹上行走势延续中,前期多单继续持仓不动。密切关注美盘豆油在60天均线位置的表现。

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oils continue to rally after rebound.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.
• We shall observe the 60-day moving average of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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