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Global Markets Analysis – 09 November 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.11.2015 周一 中长线短线多单继续持有 观望操作者随时准备多单跟进

美盘黄豆连上周四中阴下跌,周五晚间又小阳K线上涨,期价整体处于2008年以来的低位区域。美盘豆油12月合约上周五也小阳K线收盘,下影线的出现表明下方还是存在一定的买盘支持,当前美盘豆油短线走势比较纠结,期价呈横盘平台震荡,可操作性不强。等待即将公布的美国农业部(USDA)月度供需报告对大豆产量数字的公布对短线市场指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品 豆粕1601合约受国内大豆进口量庞大而承压严重,令豆粕期价持续走软,已经达到7年的期价最低位置。下方的空间已经不大了。豆油和棕榈油1601合约,短线追随美盘豆油走势呈横盘式下探整理,为中长线角度的筑大底继续震荡波动。短线技术观察是下方的空间也不是很大。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,短线期价走势呈阴阳K线跳跃式上下波动,短线走势不连贯,属于小区间内的期价反复波动整理,短线操作价值不大。耐心等待马棕榈横盘区间的方向性打破。明天周二,马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)将公布10月份的棕榈油产量和出口以及库存数据。市场投资人士预测马棕榈油10月份库存数字有可能创15年的新高水平,这也是马棕榈当前短线走势比较纠结的地方。

小结:美联储加息预期升温,令美元指数上周五长阳 飙涨,这导致全球大宗商品价格短线向空。但油脂类商品这种下挫性纠结探底走势,表明下方空间已经不是很大,我们短线的逢低翻多操作模式应该为最佳操作思路。个人观点是:中长线多大继续持有,短线新进多单谨慎持有,场外观望操作者静心观察盘中油脂表现,待急挫或者突然走强之时,多单埋伏或者追多跟进。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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