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Global Markets Analysis – 09 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


09.11.2016 周三 美国大选结果悬而未决;全球金融市场剧烈震荡

美大选结果尚未揭晓,全球高度紧张密切关注希拉里和特朗普的投票率,市场避险情绪飙升,金融市场随之动荡不安。截止到11月9号中午时分,特朗普以168:131暂时 领先希拉里。美元指数受此情绪影响长阴暴跌,非美货币则长阳上涨, 美黄金也因避险情绪飙涨。

今天周三上午盘面上-全球油脂商品受到影响相对较小,但随波逐流的些许恐慌情绪也是不可避免的。从美盘豆油12月来说,昨日周二晚间红盘上涨,已然形成了2根错列的反弹上行走势,但今天上午的亚洲电子盘因美元指数的飙涨而略微走弱, 瞬间又令美豆油短线走势出现模糊状态。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,是率先出现短线上涨的品种,昨日周二盘中的提前走强,大有反身上行的态势,只要今天的阴K线下跌幅度不吞没昨日与前日的2根阳K线,我们就继续短多观点对待,昨日新进多单暂时持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日长阳上涨,盘中再创近期新高2863令吉特,短线同样出现走强迹象,今天上午期价小幅红十字星波动,昨日紧急追涨新进多单可谨慎持有。

小结:美国大选结果尘埃未定,全球投资人士心理层面情绪波动较大。油脂类商品也受到该情绪影响。整体来说-内强外弱而棕榈强豆油弱的局面还是比较明显,我们不要被美国大选情绪严重干扰到,继续保持短多观点。观点认为操作上:少量多单进场后,密切关注前2日的阳K线不被吞没丢失为前提-多单暂时谨慎心态持有,后市短线走势仍存在反身上行的可能。

[SUMMARY]
• Global markets are rocked as US elections get underway.
• The shock extends to edible oils.
• Palm olein appears to be weakening; we shall maintain our short-term long outlook and not be influenced by the sentiment of the elections.

[ACTION]
• After going long, traders should pay close attention to bearish indicators.
• Traders may cautiously hold long positions; anticipate the possibility of an upward reversal.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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