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Global Markets Analysis – 1 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


周二 美农业部报告出炉

昨日晚间美国农业部报告出炉,报告显示美国2014年大豆春季播种面积预估为8149.3万英亩,高于此前市场预估的8107.5万英亩。 2013年大豆实际播种面积为7653.3万英亩。 库存方面,2014年第一季度大豆库存为9.92亿蒲式耳。

从报告内容分析,该报告播种面积方面略带利空,特别是对远月合约有不利影响。 而库存方面证实美国国内大豆供应依然紧俏 为利多消息。

消息公布后,期货市场美黄豆连受利多影响大涨,创9个月来新高。 美豆油利多影响不大,但悬在空中的靴子已经落地,昨晚瞬间下破60天线,后又收回,终盘以带下影线的阴十字星收盘,美豆油下探动作终于完成,若后市红盘走高,则这个带下影的“金针探底”K线成立, 密切关注今天明天美盘豆油的具体表现。

周二早盘大陆内盘期货市场,豆粕1409合约跳空高开,早盘高开高走暴涨,上行态势明显。 而豆油和棕榈油1409合约盘中表现不明显,依旧在60天线上方震荡积蓄能量,等待美豆油随后几天的动静。

马盘毛棕榈油6月,在下探到60天线附近,期价拒绝继续下挫,下跌幅度收窄变小,耐心等待该品种长阳反身动作的发生。

小结:B浪回落的时间窗口到达结尾晚期,回抽确认动作基本完成,回落的时间也已经很久了,后市反身上涨的技术要求逐渐强烈起来,虽然到今天为止,油脂市场还未出现明显反身上涨的技术信号,但我们依旧建议不能再有追空操作模式, 具体来说:激进者多单少量逢低接盘,稳健者待长阳(中阳)反身动作明显出现信号时接盘跟进。我们前期连贯思维模式观点保持不变。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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