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Global Markets Analysis – 1 July 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


7.1 周二 美国农业部报告利空 油脂商品暴跌

7月1日凌晨,美国农业部(USDA) 公布2014年农作物种植面积预估报告,报告显示,2014年美国大豆种植面积预计为 8483.9万英亩,远高于去年的7653万英亩,也远高于市场投资人士的平均预测值 8221.3万英亩。季度库存报告,截止6月1日美国大豆库存为4.06亿蒲式耳,低于去年同期的9.92亿蒲式耳,但远高于市场平均预测的3.82亿蒲式耳。

受此利空消息影响,昨晚美盘油脂类商品大豆和豆油双双暴跌,长阴下挫收盘,短线形态已经完全走坏,前期反弹行情宣布夭折。

今天早盘,受美盘阴K下跌影响,大陆内盘油脂类商品全部大幅跳空低开,技术形态显示,前几日的“触顶回落”的嫌疑走势已被完全确认,后市仍存下跌空间。

马盘毛棕榈油9月,在6月27日回落到原下降趋势线下方之后,6月30日周一,继续保持在趋势线线下方运行,期价继续滑落,连续2日的趋势线下方重心下移,已经表明短线出现走坏迹象。马盘毛棕榈油受外围油脂商品的普遍暴跌,预计今天早盘开盘会出现大幅补跌行情。

小结:美国农业部报告严重利空,全球油脂商品出现暴跌。前期的反弹行情被终结,后市已经完全转为继续下探。个人观点是前期接盘多单出局后,转为反手逢高做空操作。短线操作者可遇急跌空单先平,待盘中高点再空。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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