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Global Markets Analysis – 1 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.03.2017周三美盘豆油长阳飙涨超跌之后的反弹行情拉开序幕

昨日周二晚间,美豆油5月合约红盘长阳飙涨,涨幅达到4.66%。美豆油一根长阳“一指定乾坤”,短线反弹方向已经明确(我们早早几天前就对美豆油长阳 或者长下影线的心理预期),这是美豆油中线回落整理喋喋不休—–超跌超卖之后的“报复性”反弹,美豆油昨日晚间一根长阳包多阴,宣告第5小浪整理结束,后市短线我们以短多的反弹思路对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1705主力合约,前几日短线走势如“跳梁小丑”般上蹿下跳波动震荡,虽然盘中存在多头护盘抵抗动作,但只有在美盘豆油指明方向后,内盘油脂商品才能走出较连贯走势,在节奏上与美盘同步,在节点(时机把握上)—我们建议2.23日周四激进型交易者多单进场,2.24周五无仓稳健型交易者进场,我们在节点把握上已经做的相当精确了。今天周三盘面,内盘油脂商品跳空高开高走,多单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,今天周三盘面上,追随美盘内盘油脂商品早盘跳空高开,今天的这个“跳空缺口”为突破型跳空,后市我们以短多对待。在马棕榈上—–我们上周末时分建议的是 在低位多单进场埋伏,“埋伏”二字本身就具有风险性与前瞻性—因为我们内心明白,当美盘豆油或者内盘油脂瞬间出现长阳K线时刻,我们再进多单就略显为时已晚感觉,会错失低位价格。

小结:美盘豆油出现了我们预期中的“长阳K线”,虽然稍晚了一半天(但仍在我们预期周期的三天内)—–至此,1. 在短线方向上(转多)2.在时间周期计算上(节点把握)3.在操盘手法上(逢低多单埋伏) 三者上我们做了谨慎而细致的分析,本次研判是纯粹的技术层面,其实当前的基本面情况基本上无任何新变化。当前全球油脂商品短线的反弹走势序幕拉开—从今天起,美豆油5浪回落整理结束,后市短线我们以短多反弹观点对待。具体操作上:前期所有多单继续持有。在短线超跌之后方向明确后,后市的关注焦点我们转移到反弹力度与高度上来(其实我们前面报告里也提到过这个问题 后市是1.强势反抽?2.弱势反弹?)这需要我们根据此后盘面上的人气聚集,能量大小,力度大小来追随性判断。

[SUMMARY]
• Bullish indicator has emerged in US soybean oil like we were expecting.
• We have made analysis on three perspective: short-term direction, timing and entry strategy. We shall focus on the technical perspective for now.
• Global edible oils are staging a short-term rebound, as downward correction of US soybean oil comes to an end.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions.
• We shall focus our attention on the extent to which the upward reversal may continue.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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