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Global Markets Analysis – 1 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.1 周一 美盘马盘停盘 内盘独自抵抗

今天9月1日(周一),美盘因劳工节假期停盘,马来西亚也因国内假期期货市场停盘一天。 在缺少了外围市场短线走势的指引,大陆内盘油脂商品周一早盘受上周五外盘下跌影响, 豆油和棕榈油双双低开,由于缺少了美盘和亚洲盘的行情以及马盘盘中的实时交易,大陆内盘瞬间陷入迷茫,期价低开后窄幅波动,更多呈十字星K线震荡,成交清淡,观望气氛较浓。

国内方面,近日从黑龙江大豆协会了解到,今年上半年大豆原材料价格呈南北倒挂,南方各港口进口转基因大豆分销价格为4000元/吨,而黑龙江非转基因大豆价格为4600元/吨,主产区大豆价格高于港口价格。黑龙江油厂压榨非转基因大豆呈现出“开工即亏损”境遇,当前全省近200家油厂中仅有5家在勉强维持开工。

黑龙江省市是我国最大的非转基因大豆主产区,大豆产量占全国的三分之一。由于受进口大豆的冲击,该省大豆种植面积已经下降到3000多万亩,比最高时少了一半左右。

小结:油脂商品仍延续中短线下降趋势下的下探过程中,在当前的美盘和马盘基本面严重利空氛围下,期价逐步走低。盘中的任何一个技术反弹动作都遭到空头的猛烈打压,技术上的反弹要求被忽略,这令油脂商品下蹲寻底的过程变得更为漫长。个人看法是:今天早盘内盘油脂商品多头仍苦苦抵抗,抵抗是否有效还不好判断。期间心理承受能力弱的操作者可部分平仓豆油1501合约,或以8月25日低点为止损点来判断后市的多空风向标。 马盘和美盘今天停盘,散户操作者观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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