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Global Markets Analysis – 10 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


昨日晚间美盘豆油如预期般继续上行,并创出近几日新高,C浪运行延续中。 其中美盘大豆也创出盘中新高,盘中见1500整数关。 主要受益于美国农业部月度供需报告将大豆库存下调1000万蒲式耳,至1.35亿蒲式耳。低于分析师预估值,为2004年来最低库存数值。

美豆油如期出现上涨,但马盘毛棕榈油却仍迟迟不见反身动作,昨日虽小阳红盘报收,但仍处于前天阴K线包围之中,该K线不被击破仍属于弱势,只有长阳收高之上,才能确定反弹动作发生。 当前马棕榈整体拖累油脂商品。

大陆内盘豆油 棕榈油昨天高开低走, 今天早盘受美豆油上涨影响继续高开,但盘中上攻力度不强,呈震荡低走,整体呈现开盘追随美盘高开,盘中走势跟随马盘走低,夹在二者之间。其中内盘豆油反弹高度最高,离3月11日前高距离最近。

小结: 三地油脂商品仍延续昨天报告所提到的分化走势,美原油的走高也未带动油脂商品的整体上行,如果这种盘面延续下去,那挑战3月11日前高的走势难度就开始变大,演变成M双头的概率就有增强可能。(详情周日报告) 在这种令人烦恼的微妙走势,我们操作上也只能继续保持以静制动,持仓不动静观其变,除此之外也没好更好的办法。耐心等待行情明朗起来。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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