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Global Markets Analysis – 10 April 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.04.2015 周五 油脂商品短线下探 考验前低技术支撑

美国农业部周四报告,下调美国大豆2014/2015年度大豆期末库存至3.7亿蒲式耳,低于3月时候预期的3.85亿蒲式耳,与市场预估值接近。而全球大豆的期末库存被上调至8.955万吨,这一数字将创历史最高值。

美盘大豆连续受直接利空消息影响,周四晚间大跌,美豆油5月合约跟随下挫,虽跌幅小于美大豆,但盘中表现观察,美盘油脂类商品整体的短线下探行情延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,昨天盘中短线下跌,今日周五早盘仍短线下挫,当前期价位于前低附近震荡,盘面的弱势走势明显。

马来西亚方面,马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)周五发布的月度数据显示,2015年3月底马来西亚棕榈油库存达到187万吨,创下3个月来新高,高于2月底时候的174万吨。马盘毛棕榈油基准6月合约受国内利空消息影响,下挫走势明显,昨日原横盘整理区间的下沿被技术击穿后,期价下探力度加强,期价面临考验1月30日前低的支撑考验。

小结:当前油脂类商品基本面整体利空,油脂商品的短线下行压力加大,盘面显示市场走势疲软,短线的下蹲行情不可避免。个人观点认为短线操作者前期接盘多单止损出局后,技术破位的品种可适当反手短空操作。长线操作者在美豆油30.00一线未出现明显下破击穿前,接盘多单暂时持仓观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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