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Global Markets Analysis – 10 August 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


8.10 周日 本周回顾(04.08.2014 – 08.08.2014)及下周展望

全球油脂商品本周(8月4日-8月8日5个交易日)仍处于大格局状况下的下行走势中,在中线角度下降趋势影响下,短线的横盘平台震荡走势在8月8日本周五再次出现新低。其中美盘豆油12月,创短线新低35.56,虽有小下影线,但盘面疲软态势依旧,这也符合我们前期曾预测的后市仍存下探的技术要求,后市仍有新低可能,耐心等待这波下探结束。

马来西亚毛棕榈油基准11月,本周5个交易日表现为一阳四阴,疲软态势可见一斑。特别需要指出的是8月8日周五率先创出短线盘中新低2228令吉,短线的下行走势延续中,前期低点被下破后,下周仍有再创新低的技术要求。

大陆内盘油脂类商品中豆粕1501合约本周走势抢眼,自从7月23日低点以来连续多日技术反弹走势,本周更是5连阳上涨,盘中多粕空油跨品种套利迹象明显。内盘、豆油和棕榈油 1501合约本周走势平淡,成交量萎缩,多空交易谨慎,期价更多呈无序横盘十字星震荡为主,二品种本周即不反身上行又不下破7月23日前低,盘中走势出现模糊,考虑到本周五马盘和美盘均已下破前低后创出短线新低点,下周一内盘豆油和棕榈油选择下破前低的补跌走势不可避免。

综述:在中线角度下降趋势影响下,油脂类商品短线震荡下跌行情延续中,前期平台低点被选择下破后,后市继续下探行情仍在延续中。虽然我们在大周期角度看本波下跌是为后期中长线角度看涨做铺垫,但从短线操作账户风险角度来说,本波的下蹲行情仍需要在操作上短线规避。个人看法是在下周:前几日一直场外观望的无仓散户中,稳健型操作者继续观望。激进型操作者在盘中前低被有效下破后空单进场做空,后市技术上仍存新低,考虑到盘中容易出现反复,追空者可日内操作,见好就出短线交易为上。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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