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Global Markets Analysis – 10 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.08.2017周四美国与马来西亚重要报告出炉前油脂商品市场谨慎

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间小阳K线上涨表现,今天的亚洲电子盘又小阴K线走势。美国农业部今日周四晚间(北京时间周五凌晨)将有重要报告出炉,报告内容将涉及到7月份的产量,出口量以及库存情况,在消息面不明朗情况下,油脂类商品成交略显清淡。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日期价小阳K线上涨,今天周四又阴K线下跌,期价在反复中波动震荡——对内盘油脂商品来说,当前短线期价处于一个“可上可下”地步,后市短线具体走势,关键就在美盘豆油的方向指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,由于今天周四马来西亚棕榈油局也有重要报告出炉,在基本面情况不明朗前,马盘棕榈油今日周四以阴十字星表现,市场多空主力趋于谨慎,市场观望情绪较浓。

小结:在重要报告出炉前,油脂商品市场成交不活跃,多空主力在这个“可上可下”位置操作趋于谨慎。这点我们可以理解。对于我们散户朋友来说—–当前的空单持仓量应该比前期有所减少才对(我们建议过遇急跌平仓了结),我们也曾说过,我们本波短空操作主要目的是:1.解套前期空单。2. 关注下方支撑位置的多单买入机会。因此空单盈利多少?不是我们本波操作的重点。具体操作上:已经平仓了结仓单的散户朋友场外观望,未完全平仓完毕的散户朋友—–只可少量空单持有(有遇利多上涨的可能,但也不排除再次急挫可能),我们内心的那份警惕心态不可丢失。后市具体情况有待基本面明朗后市场新的变化来给我们具体方向指引,我们在操作中及时追随市场的新变化。

[SUMMARY]
• Market transaction in global edible oils was inactive before MPOB report and US important report released.
• We focus to close-out all short positions when a sharp drop in the markets.
• We seek opportunities to enter into long positions when the market is supported.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who have closed-out all short positions may observe the market and wait for another signals.
• Traders who are still holding short positions may reducing their positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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