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Global Markets Analysis – 10 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.12.2015 周四 油脂类商品短线回落整理 技术修复回抽均线确认中

美盘豆油3月合约目前为美盘持仓量最大主力合约,从本周一(12月7日)开始,美盘豆油冲高回落后,当前期价重心有所下移,期价回抽均线的确认过程正在进行中,我们短线仍下挫回落短空看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,今天是第三日期价回落,前几日我们提醒过,当期价反弹加速之后,后市的上涨动能一旦不能继续跟上,短线就容易出现冲高回落行情的发生,虽然期价的平均价格重心有所下移,但下方均线系统的平均价格却仍处于上升中,后市仍短空看待并关注下方均线的技术支撑力度。

马盘毛棕榈油5月当前持仓量为37826,期价走势同大陆内盘油脂商品短线走势相近,也是连续三天阴K线下挫。有朋友来邮件提醒,建议以马棕榈2月为基准月为好,刚观察了一下基准2月当前持仓量为41631,本月15号以后过度到3月为主力合约,这建议非常好。也许是操作习惯不同。在美盘豆油上2月、4月、6月、11月合约是不存在的。在大陆内盘多年的操作习惯上1月合约一过,主力合约就直接延伸到5月,其后就是9月合约。因为大陆内盘在2-3月间恰好为中国传统节日春节,在春节期间的交割能量因假期而减弱。也是操作习惯不同,那我们就继续对马盘毛棕榈油2月为基准月,马盘棕榈油2月与5月短线走势近似,在12月7日周一冲高之后,短线角度的期价下挫进行中,我们暂时仍以短空观点对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线下挫回落整理延续中,连续3天的期价重心下移基本符合我们本周初以来的短线走势预期,短线角度的回抽确认过程尚未完结,我们短线继续保持下挫整理观点不变。观点认为操作上:长线趋势操作者(更准确说这里是反转趋势观点的操作者)多单继续持有。中线波段操作者中线多单与短线空单锁仓操作继续执行,待后市止跌企稳后方可空单平仓离场。短线操作者短线多单本周初逢高离场后,反手空单建议暂时持有。每人根据自己的操作周期与操作理念与手法的不同分别对待当前市场行情,来共同关注下方均线的支撑力度,该短线行情还要持续一段时间。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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