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Global Markets Analysis – 10 January 2018

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.01.2018周三美盘豆油又开始出现“模糊”走势

美国大豆现货市场由于基本面供应庞大,本周五(1月12日)又有农业部新报告公布(大豆期末库存是上调?下调?),美豆期价短线横盘停顿整理,等待消息面的反应。美盘豆油3月合约,前几日期价上冲趋势线后受到上方60天均线压制,又回落趋势线后也暂时受到支撑—–美豆油期价在60天均线下方与上升趋势线上方“狭窄空间”内波动,短暂失去明确方向感,也许在等待农业部的报告出炉,我们也延续昨日报告中观点—-“一颗红心两手准备”,该拿的拿,该平仓的平,等待最新基本面情况的明朗。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1805主力合约,短线角度的反弹上行走势延续中,但也出现停顿反复现象,我们保持短多情绪下的谨慎心态,谨防市场突然发生新变化。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日期价高开低走—-冲高回落,阴K线收盘。在昨日报告中,我们曾说过,本波反弹上行走势是对前期下挫走势的一种超跌之后的修复性行情,期价能反弹到多大高度是我们主要关心的——-我们一般在反弹到50%—0.618位置就要开始趋于谨慎(也别指望能一下子就上冲到前高10月30日2877位置),昨日周二盘中期价最高位2641令吉特,与我们报告中所预测的50%位置的2647仅仅相差6个令吉特——昨日能在2635—2638—-2640一线多单减仓的朋友,可谓是步入高手行列了(如果指望见2647才平多单,也有些不现实,做期货不是这样做的,没有十全十美的事情)。

小结:油脂类商品短线反弹上行延续中,尚没有出现明显的反弹终止迹象,只是稍微出现了些许停顿模糊痕迹,我们继续延续昨日报告的中心思想“一颗红心两手准备”,防范未然为大前提。操作上:老多单继续逢高减仓,而低位补仓的多单可暂时谨慎持有,等待最新基本面明朗后,关注对盘面的影响程度。

[SUMMARY]
• Rebound of edible oils continues, with no sign of stopping.

[ACTION]
• Traders close-out earlier initiated long positions.
• Long positions taken at lower prices may continue to be held.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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