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Global Markets Analysis – 10 July 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.07.2017 周一油脂类商品天气炒作进行中短线反弹行情进入到加速阶段

美国华盛顿最新消息:未来一周美国中西部农业主产区的天气将变得更为炎热干燥,这对农大豆生长不利(7月份为大豆关键生长阶段)。当前美大豆天气炒作进行中,任何对农作物不利情绪的担忧都将影响到大豆期价。今天周一早盘,美黄豆连期价跳空高开加速上涨(当前处于第二个跳空缺口),另外巴西方面消息—–巴西亚马孙环境保护主义者封锁了中西部地区到北方港口的公路(巴西农作物出口量将减少25%),抗议反对减少亚马孙雨林面积议案。这也对美盘大豆的上涨起到推波助澜作用。美盘豆油12月合约,受国际原油3天来期价下挫影响,美豆油期价出现反弹停顿迹象,今天周一亚洲电子盘受美豆大幅上涨提振,期价3天停顿后勉强走高十字星表现,美豆油处于二者情绪走势影响当中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,受内盘大豆豆粕凌厉反弹上涨情绪影响(长阳飙涨),内盘豆油棕榈油今天周一早盘也出现上涨加速迹象,今日的中阳K线走势,表明短线的反弹上行走势延续中,后期将出现期价加速可能。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,受美盘内盘油脂商品走高情绪提振,今天周一早盘马棕榈小幅跳空高开,期价暂时以红盘十字星表现,短线的反弹上行行情延续中,当前期价将面临对前高(5月18日 2590—2605一线的挑战),我们密切关注该位置的市场表现(若遇阻不过多单逢高部分减仓,跃过则多单继续持有)。

小结:美国天气情况威胁美国农作物生长,这一时期市场任何的担忧情绪都将会影响美大豆美豆油的反弹走势高度,从本周开始,我们将关注焦点延伸到本波反弹上行的高度上来——任何的盘中期价的剧烈波动,都是我们关注的焦点,所以从基本面以及技术层面都要引起我们内心的警惕。特别是马盘棕榈油,当前期价面临对前高位置的挑战(过与不过的概率各占50%,我个人情绪当然更倾向于上破前高),但为防止意外发生(毕竟前次期价下跌就是从这个高度2600一线跌落下来的)。具体操作上:在保持短多前提不变观点前提下,前期多单继续谨慎持有,与此同时—–内心深处做好另一手准备,万一期价受到阻挡多单可适当部分逢高减仓,后期随着期价的不断反弹加速,我们第一建议就是 以逢高减仓操作为主(不求最高,但求更高,及时兑现利润,不再让到手的利润化为虚有),希望散户朋友能明白我文字描述的中心思想。

[SUMMARY]
• Growth of US crops is threatened by climate; rebound of US soybean oil may be greatly affected by market sentiment.
• From this week on, we shall focus on the extent of the rebound.
• We shall pay attention to big market movements caused fundamental and technical factors.
• Malaysia palm oil is at this point attempting to breach the 2600 threshold.
• We maintain a short-term long outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long positions and at the same time be prepared to close-out those positions in case the price advance faces a resistance.
• The priority at this point is to secure profits.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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