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Global Markets Analysis – 10 March 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.03.2017 周五 美国农业部报告整体利空 油脂类商品上行压力加大 部分多单减持

昨日晚间美国农业部报告出炉,其中将巴西2016/2017年度大豆产量调高400万吨,由此前2月份的1.04亿吨调高到了1.08亿吨。并且调高了美国大豆期末库存,从2月份的预估值4.2亿蒲式耳调高到3月份的4.35亿蒲式耳。同时也上调了美国豆油期末库存从月份的16.77亿磅上调到3月份的预估值17.72亿磅。2017年度美国大豆种植面积预估值则保持不变为8340万英亩。从这份刚刚出炉的农业部报告分析——本次报告内容严重利空,这将对美盘大豆美豆油带来下行压力。昨日周四晚间美黄豆连 美豆油双双中阴下跌。其中美豆油5月合约期价已经下挫了前期2根阳K线涨幅的一半还多(美豆油这种技术走势不常见),令前期反弹走势“毁于一旦”。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油 1705合约,二品种盘中表现走势分化,由于内盘豆油的率先领跌,令棕榈油苦苦挣扎的反抗显得“心有力而力不足”,在美盘基本面明朗后,内盘豆油1705合约继续下挫,建议在该品种上的多单止损出局。而棕榈油1705合约上也建议多单减仓。

马盘棕榈油基准5月合约,截止到昨天都是延续反弹上行走势,目前尚未开盘(下跌概率增大),但考虑到内盘豆油的拖累以及美盘豆油美盘原油的疲软状态—恐将对马盘棕榈带来不利的拖累作用。今日建议马盘棕榈油也部分减持多单,暂规避一下风险。

小结:美国农业部昨晚报告呈现利空,对全球油脂商品形成利空压制。考虑到部分品种已经早早显露出疲软痕迹(内盘豆油1705),为规避账户风险—-今天操作上建议:前期部分多单适当减仓,暂避一下风险。

[SUMMARY]
• Bearish news emerge out of USDA, exerting downward pressure on global edible oils.
• Considering bearish signals on some edible oils, mitigating risk is the number one priority.

[ACTION]
• Traders holding long positions may close-out some of those positions to mitigate risks.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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