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Global Markets Analysis – 10 November 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.10 日 周一 美国和马来西亚周一均有重要报告公布

受国际原油下跌影响,全球油脂类商品上周走势受到冲击,前期的反弹上行受到阻力,短线上出现冲高快速回落迹象,一周走势呈现先扬后抑态势,油脂商品短线回落幅度超出此前预期,短线节凑上受到干扰。

其中马盘毛棕榈油基准1月一阳四阴,冲高回落迹象较为突然和较为明显,盘中多头止盈出局。今日马来西亚将有报告公布,对11月前10天的出口量以及库存的担忧,令上周五盘面多头提前出局规避风险。

美盘豆油12月,上周走势最弱,5连阴冲高回落,不去回落的速度较快,期价在上冲过日图表60天线后又再次回落下来,考验其支撑效果。当前期价在60天处徘徊。今日稍微时候美农业部也将有重要报告公布。

美元指数受前期QE3退出利好支持,强势上行,在冲高到88.19一线本周出现阻力,短线观察存在回落调整苗头。美原油供大于求中线下跌,在滑落到75.84一线短暂企稳,短线若出现中阳上涨,则前期对油脂商品的下行压力将减弱。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势上出现冲高回落,前期的反弹走势受到遏制,是否反弹就此结束,尚待我们密切关注。考虑到美元有回落迹象,美原油出现下跌企稳。油脂类商品上, 多单已平仓出局入袋操作者暂场外观望,多单减半仓操作者需密切关注一下油脂商品是反弹结束?还是正常的冲高后的整理,这需要本周在走势给出明确的信号指引。同时密切关注周一稍晚时候重要报告对盘面的影响。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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