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Global Markets Analysis – 10 November 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.11.2015 周二 美国秋收工作临近尾声

美国秋收工作即将结束,当前最新大豆的收割已经达到95%。在美大豆具体产量还没公布前,油脂市场还被悲观情绪缠绕,有市场分析人士称,美国大豆总产量有可能上调,美豆库存也可能被上调。在这种市场情绪下,美盘大豆与美盘豆油12月均呈现下坠式低位震荡,中长线筑大底延续中,短线低位区域纠结波动持续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601合约,呈追随性下探,其中大豆与豆粕下行较为明显,豆油与棕榈油呈抵抗性下探,下探幅度稍小。在美盘豆油纠结未出现盘面新变化前,恐大陆内盘油脂还将延续一小段时间当前走势。

11月10日星期二屠妖节,马盘停盘一天,今天没有交易。昨日周一盘中,马棕榈油基准1月出现中阳上涨,期价再次临近前高上沿位置附近,这种短时间内多次触及高点而不下挫,表明马棕榈存在一种向上突破的欲望,仅仅是该欲望未被美盘与内盘在短线走势给予一定的技术上的支持,马盘的当前市场表现,也是我们短线角度一直以向上突破观点看待的有力证明。

小结:美盘豆油纠结中以时间换取空间,当前短线走势具有不确定性,期价在窄幅波动中横盘震荡,可操作性不强,我们散户朋友也无可奈何。内盘与马盘油脂只好呈追随性上下波动。建议继续保持筑大底观点不变前提下,对当前短线走势以静制动的思路对待。个人观点认为中长线多单持有,短线多单持有,无仓单散户朋友观望。当前短线我们也只能用这种办法对待,不盲目操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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