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Global Markets Analysis – 10 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.11.2016 周四 特朗普美国总统竞选胜出;全球新秩序将从新定义考量

神剧一般的美国大选终于尘埃落定,结果也许让很多人眼镜碎了一地。受美国“金融精英派”支持的希拉里总统梦破碎,而受“美国小城镇人”支持的唐纳德•特朗普最终获得胜利。后期的全球经济新秩序将会变得更为诡异,金融市场的动荡将成为常态,多个国家智囊团已经开始悄悄研讨未来的政治政策的应对与金融市场从新分析定位-对于我们普通散户朋友来说,没必要搞的那么复杂,我们一定要始终坚定信念,全球经济的未来不是谁当美国总统来决定,我们只需好好把自己的事情做好。

昨日全球金融市场最值得一提的是美元指数的表现-昨日盘中先长阴暴跌而后又长阳暴涨,而非美货币却恰恰相反走势,全球的外汇市场波动震荡最为猛烈,新秩序搏杀序幕开始拉开。

对于昨日盘中全球油脂商品来说-油脂类商品虽然影响较小,但还是受到一定的冲击。昨日美盘豆油12月合约,在连续2天小阳上涨之后,出现了中阴下跌局面,期价面临再度考验下方短期均线的支撑力度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周三盘面上也是剧烈波动,值得庆幸的是,昨日期价仍维持在前2日的红盘上涨范围内波动,并未出现像美盘豆油那样吞没前2日K线的走势,盘面上内强外弱的局面延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日周三盘中表现,不为周边市场各类局面影响,依旧我行我素的独立运行,期价整体波动较小-仍处于一个较高的价位,今天周四盘面十字星小幅震荡,市场观望情绪较浓,棕榈油的表现还是较为良好。

小结:全球经济受政治因素困扰而剧烈波动震荡,金融市场普遍存在一定的恐慌情绪,特别是全球外汇市场-隐隐一种灰天黑地刀剑搏杀局面。还好油脂类商品市场受到的影响较为薄弱,我们继续保持谨慎的看多观点不变,内盘与马盘新进多单谨慎持有,以静制动中密切关注后市的市场表现,不建议盲目操作。

[SUMMARY]
• The global economy is faced with political uncertainties, spreading panic across global financial markets, especially foreign exchange markets.
• The impact of the elections on edible oils is less profound.
• Nonetheless, we maintain our long position outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders who intend to enter into long position in China and Malaysia markets should remain very cautious.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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