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Global Markets Analysis – 10 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.11.2017周五美国农业部报告出炉前市场分析人士一致认为存在利多报告出炉后为利空市场大跌眼镜

昨日周四晚间(北京时间周五凌晨一点),美国农业部最新11月份报告出炉:美国2017/2018年度大豆产量创纪录新高,达到44.25亿蒲式耳。大豆单产维持在10月份预估的49.5蒲式耳/英亩不变。这2组数据均高于市场分析师此前的预估值(原本市场预计会双下调)。2017/2018年度大豆期末库存为4.25亿蒲式耳,10月份预估值为4.3亿蒲式耳——从昨日晚间报告数字分析,本报告“利空”,此前市场利多氛围瞬间化为泡影。美国基本面消息又给市场开了个“国际玩笑”,市场分析人士大跌眼镜。昨日晚间美黄豆连闻讯暴跌(原本站上1000美分上方)。美盘豆油12月合约也高开低走中阴K线下挫,原来的强势上攻又成为“悬念”?

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,昨日盘中追随美盘油脂商品走高,但突如其来的利空报告消息,瞬然间又令做多信心受到打击。今天周五盘面,内盘豆油棕榈油再度期价下跌,内盘短线走势出现恐慌局面。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,周三盘面一度红盘中阳上涨,昨日周四上午盘面也曾一度红盘上涨表现,但下午尾盘期价下挫。今天周五早盘,受美盘内盘油脂商品期价走低影响,早盘跳空低开十字星表现,马盘棕榈油也出现了期价反复现象。

小结:美国总统特朗普近日访华,据中国商务部最新消息显示:这次中美两国经贸合作的签约总额达到了2535亿美元,创下了中美经贸合作史上的记录,也创下了世界经贸合作史上的新记录。其中跟我们油脂类大宗商品有关联的是—-中国承诺2017/2018年度,再向美国进口50亿美元的大豆(其他主要购买协议 包括300架飞机,基建设备材料等待)。当前期货市场基本面情况错综复杂,消息面的不确定性令期货市场油脂类商品短线走势出现异常波动,市场分析人士再次被市场玩弄于股掌,我们也要从新思考一下前几日油脂商品“瞬间转强”的可靠性。具体操作上:手中无仓单的稳健型交易者可暂时场外观望。昨日部分激进型散户交易者轻仓试盘的多单交易要保持谨慎,因为本次报告意外险呈现利空性质,谨防市场再度发生新的变化,后市稍有风吹草动可试盘多单平仓止损出局。让我们共同关注一下美盘黄豆连美盘豆油是否会再度出现下挫走势。

[SUMMARY]
• Amid US President Trump’s visit to China, Beijing has pledged to import $5 billion worth of soybean, among other items, in the next year.
• Uncertainty is causing unstable market sentiment and unusual price movement.
• We shall focus on a possible decline of US soybeans and soybean oil in the next few sessions.

[ACTION]
• Traders without positions may stay out of the market at the moment.
• Aggressive traders may reduce existing long positions, due to a surprisingly bullish USDA report.
• Traders are advised to prepare to liquidate long positions and stop losses, if necessary.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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