Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 10 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.10.2016 周一 内盘今日开盘;油脂类商品将在庞大供应与刚性需求博弈中选择后市短线方向

进入第四季度的10月上旬,北美大豆收割工作正在紧张进行中,保守估计收割进程接近三分之一(30%左右),美国大豆丰产基本已成定局。在本周三晚间(10月12日)美国农业部将公布最新数据,其中涉及到大豆总产量、大豆种植面积预估值、期末库存以及我们最关心的单产上调预估值。南美方面,另一个大豆种植国巴西,当前进入到新豆种植阶段,最新消息显示巴西大豆种植工作已经完成11%左右,后期的天气炒作情况将纳入日程-鉴于美国与巴西基本面的不确定性,当前美盘豆油12月合约,在国庆假期期价下挫触及到60天均线位置后,期价受支撑略有反弹,今天周一亚洲电子盘期价小幅波动,等待美国农业部具体最新数据出炉后的短线方向指引。

中国大陆方面,当前国内棕榈油库存水平仍处于一个极低状态,全国各港口32万吨的棕榈油库存远低于5年平均值60-70万吨的水平。而豆油刚性需求也在隐性扩张,我们有理由相信第四季度豆油的总需求还会放大。今天周一早盘,国内长假期结束后,今天首次开盘交易,其中豆油1701主力合约平开平走小阳K线维持前期期价。棕榈油1701主力合约低开高走,期价略有走低。

马来西亚方面,本周一(10月10日),马来西亚棕榈油局将发布9月份的供需数据,其中马来西亚棕榈油库存、产量、出口量也是我们最为关心的。在中国大陆长假期期价,马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,期价曾震荡走低,当前期价仍围绕40天均线波动震荡,短线的下挫整理态势延续中。

外围方面,国际原油市场因石油输出国组织(OPEC)意外达成冻产协议,纽约原油已经从国庆假期前的43.06美元涨至50美元整数关口,最高于10月7日见到50.74水平。

小结:中国大陆金融交易市场今天10月10日开盘交易,股票市场今天红盘上涨,短线出现反弹上行走势。内盘油脂商品整体期价波动不大,全球油脂商品外围大环境的不确定性因素还比较复杂(最后的复杂),在这敏感时期,美国与马来西亚本周初将发布重要数据报告,我们静观最新数据的出炉对全球油脂商品短线走势方向的指引。观点认为具体操作上:暂时场内观望一下,待最新数据公布后(利空因素恐将偏大),我们可在利空报告正式公布后,考虑逢低吸纳少量多单进场埋伏, 中长线我们看多观点仍保持不变,仅仅在具体操作节奏细节上(进出场时机上)需要更细微缜密一些。

[SUMMARY]
• China’s financial markets resume trading today Oct 10, as stock markets rise and signs of a short-term upward reversal appear.
• China’s edible oil prices show little movement, while global edible oil prices remain uncertain.
• China, the US and Malaysia are expected to release important data, upon which we rely in determining the short-term trend.

[ACTION]
• Traders may observe the markets on the sidelines while waiting for the latest data to be released and pessimism to subside.
• Upon the release of the data, traders may consider enter long positions in small amounts.
• Our mid and long-term outlook remains, cautiously waiting for an opportunity to enter or exit the market.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock