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Global Markets Analysis – 10 September 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


9.10 周三 油脂下跌 操作观点转为看淡

果然,周二晚间美盘豆油12月合约中阴下跌出现新低,期价继续延续阻力最小的方向前进(如流动的水低处的阻力最小),期价下行的主要动力除中线角度为下降趋势的技术层面压制外,另一个主要动力是当前的美国基本面情况,近期近乎理想的天气状况对美国大豆生长极其有利。从零星的大豆收割情况来看,单产增加的预期再次被许多家分析机构所认同,出于对美豆单产产量预期的上调,美大豆和美豆油在农业部报告(本周五)出炉前,昨晚双双阴线下跌,令期价下行的担忧成为现实。

受美盘油脂商品的下跌影响,昨日大陆内盘豆油和棕榈油已经出现不同程度的下跌,近期大陆内盘油脂商品维持在一个横盘区间内,若该震荡区间的箱体下沿被向下击破,则不排除后市短线再继续下行的情况发生(如房屋破顶石头掉下来般),密切关注8月25日的低点是否被向下技术破位,若下破短线空单可跟进。

马盘毛棕榈油前几日在马政府政策性利好支持下,出现一个短暂技术反弹迹象,昨日期价反弹出现些许停顿迹象。考虑到豆油和棕榈油商品价格在油脂商品市场中抢占市场份额的比价效应,当豆油价格出现下挫,则马盘棕榈油继续上行则压力会加重,同时有传闻印度尼西亚也准备在10月份取消出口关税,这从另一方面加剧了棕榈油同棕榈油之间的市场出口量竞争,对2方面均对马盘毛棕榈油基准11月的期价存在下行压力。

小结:油脂商品昨日今日均出现不同程度下跌,市场分析人士预测机构均对本周将要公布的2大重要报告产生悲观情绪,这也是油脂商品期价再次下挫的主要原因,技术层面观察,内、外盘油脂商品均出现了下行苗头,其中美盘豆油和大豆为下跌领头羊。后市反弹失败的可能性提升。个人看法是内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油 1501合约,若震荡区间的下沿被向下有效击破后,原场外观望操作者可空单跟进。马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,昨日在期价反弹出现上行停顿后,我们就建议原低位接盘抢短线反弹的多单减仓了结,若美盘豆油后市继续下挫,则马盘的技术反弹会出现失败情况。多单出局后短线激进操作者可于11月毛棕榈油下破10日均线后反手空单进场,当前的全球油脂商品依然较为疲软,而其他大宗商品也同样出现不同程度下跌(包括贵金属、有色金属、化工类商品和黑色贱金属),全球商品均被空头氛围完全笼罩,这种整体情况下的弱势反弹均有可能迎来空头主力的刻意打压和阻击,反弹失败的可能性概率激增,短线上我们从今天起,操作观点转为看淡后市为主。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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