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Global Markets Analysis – 10 September 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


10.09.2015 周四 油脂类商品短线走势分化严重

美元指数继续在次高位96.00一线震荡,一种摇摇欲坠感觉隐隐浮现,短线角度的下跌酝酿中。

国际原油市场情况错综复杂,各类消息满天飞令投资人士不知所措一脸茫然。其中纽约原油前期反弹之后又出现短线下坠迹象。

美盘大豆与美盘豆油12月,期价在较低位置阴阳K线互现,在前期疲软盘面影响下,短线角度走势迷茫,不能给出明确的指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,期价欲涨还跌,下有支撑上有阻挡,多头主力顽强抵抗中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,短线反弹上行走势良好,完全未受到内盘与美盘疲软的过多影响,棕榈油走势独立性可见一般。

小结:当前全球基本面情况复杂,大宗商品上多空主力对后市走势分歧较大。大部分商品在短线走势上略显困惑,以往的持续性行情不能有效的展开,表明当前投资人士的心态不稳,不能在观点上达成共识。从以往历史经验来说-“顶是尖的,底是圆的”。因此我们中长线角度继续保持大跌之后的反复震荡筑大底观点不变。短线角度我们以短周期的期价无序波动轨迹来操作(其实表面的无序中带有内在的有序),单从短线角度来说,马强、美弱、内抵抗三地盘面特点依然很明显,内盘 马盘油脂商品后市短线的走强必须有美盘走强的支持,否则美盘短线的疲软依然会拖累到内盘与马盘走势。当前短线我们思维上继续对三地油脂商品保持区别对待的观点思路,谨慎对待各自当前盘面特征,略出现风吹草动迹象第一时间就是多单减仓操作,以规避风险,谨防美豆油与美原油的二次探底。个人观点认为中长短线三周期的前期接盘多单谨慎持有,其中短线多单稍有盘面不利情况变化下则逢高适量减仓。后市关注焦点就放在反弹的高点到底在何位置上?继续关注美盘豆油的具体表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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