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Global Markets Analysis – 11 April 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong

周五 内盘棕榈油走坏

马盘毛棕榈油迟迟不见反身动作,60天线阻挡后持续阴跌走低, 基本面受马来西亚棕榈局(MPOB)月度报告利空影响, MPOB报告显示,3月份棕榈油产量与库存均高于市场预期,而出口量却低于预期。 典型的利空氛围造就马棕榈油反身动作艰难,并且拖累了整体油脂市场上攻态势。 大陆内盘棕榈油1409合约在连续2日高开低走表现之后,连续2天的阴K收盘形成“强调”K线组合,并且昨天阴K线吞没前天阴K线,今天早盘终于被拖累形成下破,跌破60天线,并且期价跌破3月25日反身动作起始点,图表走坏迹象出现,今日尾盘若收不到3月25日低点之上,该品种接盘多单止损出局.

美盘豆油仍处于震荡上行格局之中,并未出现棕榈油那般弱势态势。内盘豆油1409合约虽然也是连续阴K收盘,但下跌幅度远没有棕榈油1409合约剧烈, 内盘豆油接盘多单可继续谨慎持有。

小结: 内盘豆油 棕榈油走势出现分化,棕榈油下跌幅度过大,技术走坏迹象明显,建议持有该品种接盘多单操作者止损出局。 豆油接盘多单者可谨慎持有。 同时在豆粕1409合约今天短空进场,形成跨品种套利操作模式,以规避内盘油脂商品整体下行风险的发生。马盘毛棕榈油接盘多单操作者可谨慎持有,利空消息公布后,期价下行幅度收窄, 但若盘中出现放量急跌,接盘多单则可考虑止损出局。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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