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Global Markets Analysis – 11 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.08.2016 周四 马来西亚棕榈油局公布7月末棕榈油库存下滑0.2个百分点

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间在关键技术位置表现不俗-期价上破下降压力线的阻挡,中阳红盘上涨收盘于32.03,基本符合我们此前的主观预测。后市短线期价能否继续拔高,(3天内)快速脱离该价格区域,将是验证期价向上突破是否成功的唯一标准,我们继续关注美盘豆油的后续走势指引。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,昨日周三盘中走势略显迟疑,日内以十字星小幅波动震荡等待美盘给出具体的短线走势指引。昨日晚间的美盘上涨恐将给内盘多头主力带来一定心理上的提振,我们密切关注内盘今日周四盘中的表现。

马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)官方数据显示-棕榈油7月份产量增加(利空),棕榈油出口量增加(利多),而7月份的棕榈油库存此前一直被市场调查机构与部分分析师预测将增加3%以上,而昨日公布的期末库存数据却意外下滑o.2%,这对马盘棕榈油形成利多支持。马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,昨日盘中红盘中阳上涨,盘中多头主力发力拉升迹象明显,期价反弹上行走势进行中。

小结:美盘豆油昨日晚间红盘上涨,期价出现上破技术压力位的苗头,是否真正突破成功,尚待随后2天继续上涨的验证。在油脂类商品短线角度未给出反弹上行动能衰竭前,我们依然保持短多观点对待。个人观点是在操作上:前期新老多单继续持有,共同关注美盘豆油昨日晚间向上突破的可靠性与真实性。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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