Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 11 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.08.2017 周五 美国农业部报告出炉 公布的数据出人意外

华盛顿8月10号消息:美国农业部(USDA)公布的8月份供需报告显示,美国2017/2018年度大豆播种面积为8950万英亩,与7月份公布的8950万英亩相同(这点在理解范围之内)。公布的美国大豆单产为每英亩49.4蒲式耳,而7月份的预估值为每英亩48蒲式耳(调高了1.4蒲式耳)。2017/2018年度大豆年末库存预估值为4.75亿蒲式耳,而7月份的预估值为4.6亿蒲式耳(新豆还没下来,多销售旧豆而期末库存却增加了?? 最出人意外)。从报告数据分析——美大豆单产上调,最关键是期末总库存也上调了,这令全球分析师倍感意外,大跌眼镜。本报告我个人定义为严重“利空”。美黄豆连昨日晚间公布消息后急跌3%。而美盘豆油12月合约也由涨转跌,终盘以带长上影线的阴K线收盘,美盘油脂商品的下挫整理走势延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约——–原本昨日周四晚间交易盘为红盘上涨表现(在晚间11点半之前),在美国凌晨之后公布农业部的利空报告后,今天周五早盘发生惊人逆转,期价由红转绿,出现大幅度下跌,截止今天上午盘面疲软表现。

马来西亚棕榈油局昨日也有报告公布——7月份棕榈油产量为183万吨,市场预期168万吨。7月份棕榈油出口为140万吨,市场预期是143万吨,7月份棕榈油库存为178万吨,市场预期值为163万吨。从本报告分析:产量增长高于预期,而出口量低于预期,造成马来西亚7月份棕榈油总库存增至一年来的最高水平(利空)。另外马来西亚船运调查机构SGS发布最新数据显示,8月1日—10日马来西亚棕榈油出口量为363.007吨,比7月份同期的381.241吨减少了4.8%。从马来西亚最新公布的数据分析——也呈利空情绪。马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,今天周五早盘期价低开,截止上午12点为十字星表现。

小结:美国马来西亚最新公布数据出炉,我个人评价为“利空消息”,后市油脂商品短线走势恐将继续维持疲软下挫盘整走势,不排除个别品种出现急挫或者补跌情况的发生。具体操作上:手中无仓单散户朋友场外观望,前期剩余部分空单持仓者可继续持有(遇盘中急跌时候,仍建议空单减仓),我们等待市场吸收消化本次利空消息带来的下挫走势,等未来回落整理真正结束时候,我们做好低位多单进场的时机把握机会(后话)。而当前情况,我们部分手中空单何时平仓了结出局仍未主要任务,暂时推延到下周初。

[SUMMARY]
• MPOB report and US important report was released on yesterday, which are a bearish industry regulator data and beneficial to short position.
• The market of related oils may continue to move downward or drop sharply.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who have closed-out all short positions may continue to observe the market and wait for another signals.
• Traders who are still holding short positions may continue to retain them in the short-term.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock