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Global Markets Analysis – 11 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong

11.08.2017 周五 美国农业部报告出炉 公布的数据出人意外

华盛顿8月10号消息:美国农业部(USDA)公布的8月份供需报告显示,美国2017/2018年度大豆播种面积为8950万英亩,与7月份公布的8950万英亩相同(这点在理解范围之内)。公布的美国大豆单产为每英亩49.4蒲式耳,而7月份的预估值为每英亩48蒲式耳(调高了1.4蒲式耳)。2017/2018年度大豆年末库存预估值为4.75亿蒲式耳,而7月份的预估值为4.6亿蒲式耳(新豆还没下来,多销售旧豆而期末库存却增加了?? 最出人意外)。从报告数据分析——美大豆单产上调,最关键是期末总库存也上调了,这令全球分析师倍感意外,大跌眼镜。本报告我个人定义为严重“利空”。美黄豆连昨日晚间公布消息后急跌3%。而美盘豆油12月合约也由涨转跌,终盘以带长上影线的阴K线收盘,美盘油脂商品的下挫整理走势延续中。




• MPOB report and US important report was released on yesterday, which are a bearish industry regulator data and beneficial to short position.
• The market of related oils may continue to move downward or drop sharply.

• Retail traders who have closed-out all short positions may continue to observe the market and wait for another signals.
• Traders who are still holding short positions may continue to retain them in the short-term.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.


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