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Global Markets Analysis – 11 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


11.01.2015 周日 油脂商品本周回顾 下周展望

美元指数中线角度近期一直保持上行态势,全球大宗商品持续承压,以美元计价的各类商品普遍下跌。从短线上观察,美元连续上攻之后短线出现超卖迹象,后市短线的回落整理不可避免。

美原油连续图表,恰恰存在相反技术特征,短线上存在超卖技术迹象,但在全球国际原油整体利空情绪下,跌跌不休走势尚未完全得到扭转,近期虽然到达长期上升趋势线技术位置,但明显的触底反弹行情尚未形成,如非特殊利好,V型反转难度较大,恐后市尚需时间上支持。

本周(1月5日-1月9日当周)是大陆内盘2015年第一个交易周,从1月5日周一开始内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油1505合约期价均有不同程度上涨,但整体上涨幅度依然较小,期价仍受制于日K线图表上空头排列的均线系统层层压制,短线上内盘若要想突破均线压制仅能等美盘豆油的指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,本周表现抢眼,期价连续长阳震荡惯性反弹上行,这与马来西亚本国基本面的利多分不开,最终令马毛棕榈油走出独立强势反弹行情,中线看后市仍有上行空间。但考虑到短线上行速度过猛,不排除下周出现短线上的回落整理,中长线单子可置之不理,但建议前期短线接盘多单可适当逢高减仓回避主力获利盘的平仓行为。

美盘豆油本周(1月5日-1月9日)短线走势也有可圈可点之处,1月5日周一从箱体下沿支撑位置开始上涨, 5个交易日4长阳1阴,到1月9日恰好来到箱体上沿位置,整整在长达4个月之久的箱体内做了个来回,下箱体买进上箱体卖出可谓获利丰厚,这也是典型的箱体内操作模式。截止到1月9日本周五,美盘豆油3月合约尚未给出个明确突破信号,看来尚需下周的市场表现-究竟是继续横盘 ?还是上破?

综述:国际原油继续中线的下挫寻支撑,技术支撑是否完全有效尚待时间上验证。美豆油从箱体下沿折身上行到上沿,大有上破走势,但截至周五尚未给明确答案。大陆内盘油脂跟随走势模糊,仍受均线层层压制。马盘毛棕榈油反弹上行走势明显,但存在短线上升斜率过猛。中短线我们继续保持反弹走势观点,长线观点此时下结论为时尚早。个人建议等待美盘豆油给出明确指引,前期多单谨慎持有,一有风吹草动短线单子可适量减半仓。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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